Monday, February 13, 2017
It has been a great run but, I do not have the time to keep two blogs running mostly for free. I have to spend all my time at my present site, ElliottWave5.Com | The Gateway To Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Analysis.
There are many broken links and too many outdated and duplicated files from the years that I worked in Supercycle and Grand Supercycle degree. After 2013 I realized that it was impossible for us to be in SC or GSC degree.
All files have always been backed up on my home hard drive which to this day, I have managed not to wipe out, still preserving several decades of my work. Many of my early poster projects, are about 34 posters in the 22X28 inch format. Only camera copies have ever been posted. There were also many 8x10 smaller projects, which many of them have been posted. Hopefully I can publish most of them again in a special page on my present site. I can't really call them collages, as my posters are all focused around a general theme, and time period.
The exact date that Elliot wave 5.0 "Reboot" will close its doors is not certain, but feel free to download what you like, as many of these files will no longer be available after early March 2017.
Saturday, February 11, 2017
In the last few days of last week, crude oil returned with a vengeance, and is now in a position to break out past what I show is a "D" wave top. Until last week I was working a very short term bearish wave count, which was trashed with the spike last week.
A move that breaks a rule, instantly calls for a review going back as far as we think we need to. In this case we need the daily chart and look at oil from the bullish perspective. In reality, I just pulled an old wave count from my inventory, where the November 2016 low was a potential running flat.
From that November 2016 low we now can see a potential 5 wave sequence that is a pretty rough looking impulse, but may work well as a "C" wave bullish phase. Crude oil is only 55 cents away from clearing the important "D" wave. At $56.20 we would clear the entire mess of waves, from late 2016 and early 2017.
If this next bullish phase comes true then I sure would like to see crude oil eventually pass that $60-$65 price level. Extensions can happen as well, so in a fit of madness, crude oil could spike past those numbers.
The Gold/Oil ratio is still pretty decent which is at 22.89:1
Every conceivable reason for the crude oil price spike is being used, and many contradict themselves as well. This is all a waste of time if we understand that a big crude oil bull market has been in progress since the 2016 bottom. Even a big bear market rally can send oil prices flying past old highs, so we are far from finished. Until the Gold/Oil ratio turns to the extreme, and the planet is bullish on oil again, the oil bull market is still alive and has much further to go.
Friday, February 10, 2017
There is no doubt in my mind that this bull market is getting very frothy as the media is hyping this bull market. The VIX has been at record lows which tells us how complacent investors really are. Experts are telling us that the VIX is irrelevant being this low, and in most part ignore its importance.
Of course they are ignoring HDGE as well
Any extreme bull market top has been the breeding grounds for a bear market yet to come and this time it will be no different. The problem is we never now exactly what day, month, or year any market turning will start, but most start when the majority least expect them to.
I moved my Minor degree "A" wave up a bit and now we have more of an even zigzag for the 5th wave in Intermediate degree. This keeps the big diagonal wave pattern in sequence, and it sure alternates in style with a small skinny "C" wave bullish phase we are still in. This is a pretty normal alternation, as the 5 wave sequences alternate in physical size.
In the big scope of things I believe we are heading up to a Cycle degree wave III, which would end one part of a Cycle degree run that started way back from a major low in 1932. Another major low with a Fibonacci 89 year cycle, could be closer to 2021 matching the bottom of solar cycle #24.
This chart is still far from the bottom as it can roll around the bottom for several years before SC #25 starts. There is usually a market crash just before any solar cycle bottom, which has not happened yet. It may not happen until the very end. If the majority of investors are bearish on stocks at that time, they will be ill prepared for a major bull market soon to follow. Running with the bulls eventually gives you nothing but pain and no gain, as it is mathematically impossible for us to make money running with the herd.
Monday, February 6, 2017
If we look back to 2001 we can see how choppy the gold stock bull market was at that time. This fits well into a diagonal pattern as it sure does not work with any impulse wave count. The odds are extremely high that the 2011 peak was a Cycle degree wave III position. Gold itself also topped out in 2011 which I think was also a Cycle degree wave III.
After 2011 gold started on a major decline which looks like an Impulse, but this all fell apart after the 2013 bottom. This works better as an Intermediate degree zigzag which ended in early 2016. Just the fact that the gold stock bear market can contain a zigzag, allows the entire bear market to retrace itself, and even break out and go much higher, than any 2011 peak.
If and when that happens then it becomes just another expanded flat, but in Primary degree. Our present bullish phase can work as a Primary degree "B" wave bull market, but we are just in the early stages of this move.
The HUI can touch any part of the top trend line, and how high it will go is a matter of how fast it's going to travel. We should end up with three big pushes to the upside much like any 5 wave bull market would. This is not a start of a wave 1 position as first waves are never the longest waves.
"A" waves do act like this and can be very tall. Time will tell if the present "C" wave bullish phase wanders off course and rolls over, before it hits any part of the top trend line.
The Gold/Hui ratio was at 5.75:1 and I believe we could see a 3:1 ratio before this bull market comes to an end, besides, we should read the reports about gold stock insider selling which has not happened yet. The ratios are a far more objective way of looking at gold stocks, which the seasoned contrarians use.
Short term we can see some downside, but this bull market is far from finished in the longer term.
Sunday, January 29, 2017
I gave up on the standard trend lines many years ago as I found them pretty useless most of the time. Any kid can draw wedge shaped lines like the majority do, but I refused to follow the sheep as I find two or three parallel lines far more useful.
Even now the last 5th wave is flowing away from the trend line, telling me that the top trend line will never get hit. It started to roll over a long time ago already. Two parallel lines also work for corrections many times, as corrections can fall dramatically outside the two lines. Like they did during the 2008-2009 crash. They forced the trend lines to show us a 5 wave decline, but in reality it was a 3 wave decline.
Since the 2009 bottom we've had a market that just refused to play the impulse game, but kept acting like it was in some much bigger bullish phase. The best way that I can explain this is that since the 2009 bottom we had a diagonal 5th wave bull market going on just a bit under 8 years.
Big bear market rallies don't last this long, and I'm sure we would see bigger and wilder waves the likes you have never seen before.
I would love to see the Cycle degree to hold at this time, but we can still explore the 3 options we would have if Cycle degree wave III is real. The entire Cycle degree 4th wave correction would have to finish by 2021 or so, as this will also be the time that the new solar cycle #25 will start. The last thing we want is to be bearish at the start of SC #25. Yes, it's all about climate change, as it is the solar cycles that control the climate on this planet, not what man does. As the solar cycle is on its last legs, the climate changes, with increased earthquakes and increased volcanic activity.
This is not rocket science folks and it is one of the big reasons why all the extreme snow we have had, and that the droughts in California just about vanished overnight!
I spent the last 20 years following the solar cycles and it is amazing how much bullshit is spread with misplaced science. From about 1960-1980 the markets went sideways and at that time they were all worried that another Iceage was coming.
Back then they used the exact same reasons for global cooling as they have used now for global warming. This is mathematically and scientifically impossible, yet the majority believe it's real science. Consensus science is not science because scientists would not have a job if they don't have a problem. We can go on and on about this, but I have never seen a bull market perform during a global cooling period.
Sunday, January 15, 2017
From the link above it seems they are still as bearish towards gold than at anytime in the past. This applies to GLD but not the futures. The more gold
bears that are out, or the lack of gold bulls, the better it is for gold in the long run. When market sentiment is this low, it has only one way to go and that is up! The markets will never please those emotional traders and investors that just flip flop around on some emotional fundamental reporting.
It took gold 5-6 months to finish a crash which I see as a bull market correction, and not the end of a bull market that many analysts claim. Some claim that gold still has to fall below $1000, but if that's the
case, then gold stocks must follow. It is pretty hard for gold stocks to stay in a bull market while gold resumes its bear market to a new record low.
Gold has started its wild ride in late 2016, but now seems to be in a small correction. Corrections may not be so obvious on the first leg up, but I'm sure the corrections will get much bigger once my anticipated wave 1 in Minute degree arrives. Gold may struggle at a double top, but eventually should break out above that $1375 price level.
The top trend line is pointing to about the $1500 price level at this time, but "C" wave bull markets have a nasty habit of overshooting. Since I'm working gold as a zigzag, they can alternate in pattern where the "C" wave refuses to correct and acts like the first set of waves from the late 2015 bottom.
The correction from the July 2016 top shows how patterns can alternate. One set is wild with large physical waves while the next set of 5 waves does something entirely different. This is very common, and happens at all degree levels as well.
Thursday, January 5, 2017
My Server has been down for 16-18 hours already, but they are working on it. When the service at Elliottwave5.com gets working again is still unclear at this time. This site is still up and running so I will post a few on this blog today.
The long anticipated decline seems to have started with great enthusiasm. This is a good sign as the USD would be switching back to its true trend which is down. The waves form with a bit more clarity when it is back on its true trend. That does not mean the decline will not throw any surprises at us. It is the markets job to confuse and rattle as many cages as it can, to keep us guessing. I don't like to guess as the commercial traders have been very bearish already which eventually puts a cap on the USD bull market.
I have mentioned this many times, that the entire US dollar bull market was a fake bull market, and when that happens, a complete 100% retracement should be expected. At this time the 103.820 price level is the top which Steven Jon Kaplan, my favorite contrarian has also mentioned.
Gold has already responded to the US dollar decline as well as stocks turning down.
The window to buy gold stocks is rapidly closing as contrarians never buy when an asset class has already started on a bullish phase. If you shorted the US dollar at this time, then chances are good that a rapid reversal will force you out of this short position.
There should be no more new record highs for many years, but we should get one big counter rally long before another major bottom arrives.
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
This morning the US dollar made a mad dash and created a new record high at 103.820, after which the US dollar reversed positions and then proceeded to head down. Numerous times we tried to get a top that will hold, which is hard to do if we are dealing with an extended diagonal "C" wave.
Of course the majority is bullish on the US dollar, but I'm sure that, that will change once they see that the US dollar doesn't want to stop heading down. The public or majority has no clue when a big false bull market has been in effect, especially when it is about 8 years old already.
Just because something is extended or longer and bigger, does not mean it is in a higher degree, it is the exact opposite, as it is the smaller degree levels that come out of hiding that create the extensions.
In the "C" wave in Minute degree I still would have a minimum of 5 degree levels that can reveal themselves. I only use two degree levels in the chart above.
If the "D" wave top is complete then the US dollar has to show us the way and keep going south. It can go at any speed it likes, but on a potential "D" wave top we can't take any expanded patterns, once the "D" wave has completed.
The COT report has the commercials with a large amount of short positions so would only get worse if this USD bull market continued. The commercials are not the speculators, as they have a different reason for what they do.
Now the speculators are another matter, as I call them the "Trend Chasers" the emotional money mangers, and hedge fund owners. Speculators do the opposite of what the commercials do, as they are in a big US dollar bull trap. It is exactly what the majority think as well. The fund managers hated gold a few weeks ago, and I'm sure we will see them jump back on the gold bull bandwagon.
I would like to thank all the readers that try my new blog as in December 2016, it broke all records of pages read in one month. In April 2016 this blog broke all records with 22,000 pages read in one month.
On the new blog, I registered 25,500 pages read in one month, and I like to thank all my readers that made it happen.
Friday, December 30, 2016
In the last week of December 2016 gold stocks, ETFs and this HUI index seemed to have created a violent and speedy reversal. This is a good thing, as chances are good there is more to come in the next 5-6 months. You can find a more detailed posting on my new blog Gold Stocks HUI Bull Market Review | ElliottWave5.Com.
If the "B" wave bottom in Minor degree is real then the HUI should have no problem clearing or retracing the mid 2016 top. The longer bulls wait to jump back into the game, the more of the gains will be left on the table. We all know who was scooping up those fire sale gold stocks, as Steven Jon Kaplan has made it pretty clear via his Twitter account and newsletters.
I would say that we have a very high probability "C" wave bull market in Minor degree, and these "C" waves can make some pretty dramatic moves to the upside once they start to peak out. I will not turn bearish until the majority becomes bullish on gold stocks again.
I wish all readers the best for the 2017 year, and as of today Elliottwave5.com is experiencing the most pages read in one month since I have been blogging. We should finish 2016 with well over 25,000 pages read. I thank all my readers in making this happen.
Updated February, 10, 2017
I thought I would insert a link to my February 6th HUI review, as most readers have been ignoring it.
Saturday, December 17, 2016
This is just a quick update of the Euro from a bullish perspective. Last week saw the Euro hit a new record low in its bear market, now lasting close to 8 years. Commercials are net long with the Euro and are net short the US dollar at the same time. This all smells like a Euro bear trap which looks like it is finishing a short diagonal 5th wave down in Minor degree. Crashing below the two year bottoms, help to make it a 5th wave.
On the Intraday scale it looks like it is starting up again, which would make the bottom a few days old at this time. Since there is one big zigzag pointing down, which has not been retraced, then at least the Euro should clear all peaks that happened in the last two years.
In short the Euro short players are going to get brutalized, because they will be forced to completely change directions. All the buy stops, which are above present prices, will get triggered forcing all the bears to instantly become Euro bulls. There is a slim to no chance, for gold to diverge from the Euro, as they have trended together for many years.
Needless to say I'm looking at the Euro from a bullish perspective, but how far the Euro can swing North is still debatable. Major trends just don't quit on a whim, as trends can last for years at a time.
Eventually all trends do come to an end, and hopefully this may have just happened last week.
A "D" wave may work for the Euro bottom, which means we may get a good Intermediate degree 3 wave bull market, in the next few years.
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