Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Gold Daily Chart Bull Market Review

The World's Largest Gold Fund Is Going Through Its Longest Dry Spell On Record




From the link above it seems they are still as bearish towards gold than at anytime in the past.  This applies to GLD but not the futures. The more gold bears that are out, or the lack of gold bulls, the better it is for gold in the long run. When market sentiment is this low, it has only one way to go and that is up!  The markets will never please those emotional traders and investors that just flip flop around on some emotional fundamental reporting. 

It took gold 5-6 months to finish a crash which I see as a bull market correction, and not the end of a bull market that many analysts claim. Some claim that gold still has to fall below $1000, but if that's the case, then gold stocks must follow.  It is pretty hard for gold stocks to stay in a bull market while gold resumes its bear market to a new record low.

Gold has started its wild ride in late 2016, but now seems to be in a small correction. Corrections may not be so obvious on the first leg up, but I'm sure the corrections will get much bigger once my anticipated wave 1 in Minute degree arrives.  Gold may struggle at a double top, but eventually should break out above that $1375 price level. 

The top trend line is pointing to about the $1500 price level at this time, but "C" wave bull markets have a nasty habit of overshooting.  Since I'm working gold as a zigzag, they can alternate in pattern where the "C" wave refuses to correct and acts like the first set of waves from the late 2015 bottom. 

The correction from the July 2016 top shows how patterns can alternate. One set is wild with large physical waves while the next set of 5 waves does something entirely different.  This is very common, and happens at all degree levels as well. 



Thursday, January 5, 2017

US Dollar Intraday Crash Review

My Server has been down for 16-18 hours already, but they are working on it. When the service at Elliottwave5.com gets working again is still unclear at this time.  This site is still up and running so I will post a few on this blog today.




The long anticipated decline seems to have started with great enthusiasm. This is a good sign as the USD would be switching back to its true trend which is down.  The waves form with a bit more clarity when it is back on its true trend.  That does not mean the decline will not throw any surprises at us. It is the markets job to confuse and rattle as many cages as it can, to keep us guessing.  I don't like to guess as the commercial traders have been very bearish already which eventually puts a cap on the USD bull market. 

I have mentioned this many times, that the entire US dollar bull market was a fake bull market, and when that happens, a complete 100% retracement should be expected.  At this time the 103.820 price level is the top which Steven Jon Kaplan, my favorite contrarian has also mentioned. 

Gold has already responded to the US dollar decline as well as stocks turning down. 

The window to buy gold stocks is rapidly closing as contrarians never buy when an asset class has already started on a bullish phase.  If you shorted the US dollar at this time, then chances are good that a rapid reversal will force you out of this short position. 

There should be no more new record highs for many years, but we should get one big counter rally long before another major bottom arrives. 




Wednesday, January 4, 2017

US Dollar Daily Chart, Another Potential Bull Market Top Review





This morning the US dollar made a mad dash and created a new record high at 103.820, after which  the US dollar reversed positions and then proceeded to head down.  Numerous times we tried to get a top that will hold, which is hard to do if we are dealing with an extended diagonal "C" wave.  

Of course the majority is bullish on the US dollar, but I'm sure that, that  will change once they see that the US dollar doesn't want to stop heading down.  The public or majority has no clue when a big false bull market has been in effect, especially when it is about 8 years old already. 

Just because something is extended or longer and bigger, does not mean it is in a higher degree, it is the exact opposite, as it is the smaller degree levels that come out of hiding that create the extensions. 
In the "C" wave in Minute degree I still would have a minimum of 5 degree levels that can reveal themselves.  I only use two degree levels in the chart above. 

If the "D" wave top is complete then the US dollar has to show us the way and keep going south. It can go at any speed it likes, but on a potential "D" wave top we can't take any expanded patterns, once the "D" wave has completed. 

The COT report has the commercials with a large amount of short positions so would only get worse if this USD bull market continued.  The commercials are not the speculators, as they have a different reason for what they do. 

Now the speculators are another matter, as I call them the "Trend Chasers" the emotional money mangers, and hedge fund owners. Speculators do the opposite of what the commercials do, as they are in a big US dollar bull trap. It is exactly what the majority think as well.  The fund managers hated gold a few weeks ago, and I'm sure we will see them jump back on the gold bull bandwagon. 


I would like to thank all the readers that try  my new blog as in December 2016, it broke all records of pages read in one month.  In April 2016 this blog broke all records with 22,000 pages read in one month.  


On the new blog, I registered 25,500 pages read in one month, and I like to thank all my readers that made it happen. 




Friday, December 30, 2016

HUI Gold Stock Bull Market Returns




In the last week of December 2016 gold stocks, ETFs and this HUI index seemed to have created a violent and speedy reversal.   This is a good thing, as chances are good there is more to come in the next 5-6 months. You can find a more detailed posting on my new blog Gold Stocks HUI Bull Market Review | ElliottWave5.Com

If the "B" wave bottom in Minor degree is real then the HUI should have no problem clearing or retracing the mid 2016 top.  The longer bulls wait to jump back into the game, the more of the gains will be left on the table.  We all know who was scooping up those fire sale gold stocks, as Steven Jon Kaplan has made it pretty clear via his Twitter account and newsletters. 

I would say that we have a very high probability "C" wave bull market in Minor degree, and these "C" waves  can make some pretty dramatic moves to the upside once they start to peak out. I will not turn bearish until the majority becomes bullish on gold stocks again. 

I wish all readers the best for the 2017 year, and as of today Elliottwave5.com is experiencing the most pages read in one month since I have been blogging. We should finish 2016 with well over 25,000 pages read.  I thank all my readers in making this happen. 


Saturday, December 17, 2016

Euro Daily Chart Review




This is just a quick update of the Euro from a bullish perspective. Last week saw the Euro hit a new record low in its bear market, now lasting close to 8 years. Commercials are net long with the Euro and are net short the US dollar at the same time.  This all smells like a Euro bear trap which looks like it is finishing a short diagonal 5th wave down in Minor degree.  Crashing below the two year bottoms, help to make it a 5th wave. 

On the Intraday scale it looks like it is starting up again, which would make the bottom a few days old at this time.  Since there is one big zigzag pointing down, which has not been retraced, then at least the Euro should clear all peaks that happened in the last two years. 

In short the Euro short players are going to get brutalized,  because they will be forced to completely change directions. All the buy stops, which are above present prices, will get triggered forcing all the bears to instantly become Euro bulls. There is a slim to no chance,  for gold to diverge from the Euro, as they have trended together for many years. 

Needless to say I'm looking at the Euro from a bullish perspective, but how far the Euro can swing North is still debatable.  Major trends just don't quit on a whim, as trends can last for years at a time.

Eventually all trends do come to an end, and hopefully this may have just happened last week. 

A "D" wave may work for the Euro bottom, which means we may get a good Intermediate degree 3 wave bull market,  in the next few years. 



Here’s where contrarian investors plan to make their money in 2017 - MarketWatch


The True Contrarian Tweet! 

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Fake News, Fake Wave Counts!






Sometime ago I came across a Gold wave count, which I have re-created above. I'm sure we have all read about fake news, but there is a bigger insidious problem, which is fake wave counts.  They may not be deliberately placed fake wave counts, but they still cause you to lose money in the long run. 

Most wave counters are just hobbyists and dabble in it to impress us, others just want a means to create short term trade setups. Wave experts that create short term setups, do this because they have no knowledge of the bigger picture. 

Since 2000 EWP experts have burst on the scene and the majority are trapped, with the lure of high degree wave counting.  I know,  because I was trapped myself for well over a decade. I already tired this wave count a long time ago, back when gold was soaring to about $1000. EWI was extremely bearish on gold for the entire trip up to the $1000 price level, so there was no way investors were prepared for a bull market in gold back in 1999.  All the contrarians sure we're prepared, as insiders were buying at a steady clip, and Steven Jon Kaplan screamed, "Buy Gold Now"!

This wave count I spotted is all that this analyst showed us, so if we know our basic scripts, then we should be able to figure out, the two missing wave positions that he must have.  This wave count has Cycle degree wave two down at about the $500 price level, which I have no problem with, for a potential wave 2 bottom.  Of course in the real world,  this wave count could drop well below $400.

If and when it does this then the analyst will change his wave count to reflect a bigger bearish picture, and as soon as the paint dries on this bearish wave count, gold will turn and soar.  The next thing you know you are left behind or chasing a wild bull market. 

All the Fib retracement levels mean nothing, if our entire wave count is so far of course that it is impossible to be any use at all. 

Of course, there is another 5 wave sequence missing, that must also be filled in, including the exact degree of these 5 waves.  

Ever wonder why so many rich people are contrarians, who have never counted out a single wave in their entire lifetime, yet most all wave analysts missed every major bull market. 

Not a single billionaire has said that yes, I have created billions on my wave counting ability. 

The real world wave counts are never what they seem, as these are wave structures, put out to fool all the lazy wave analysts.  I visited my friend on Friday who, told me that it has taken him well over 5 years to become a contrarian, and I mentioned to him, that the only important wave count is the one that makes the contrarians rich! 

I'm sure that if I had a wild bearish wave count, I would get an email from my friend asking me "What I had been smoking".  Learning the EWP takes a good 4 years or more and works best for the contrarians in the world. 

If you think that buying low and selling high is a barbaric way of  investing, then I leave you with a small saying, 

"You're either a contrarian, or you become a victim" - (paraphrasing Rick Rule)

Thursday, December 8, 2016

DJIA Daily Chart Stock Mania Review




How do you like the Trump Bubble now? Since the election the stock market has soared with the excuse that we are on a, "Great Rotation",  into stocks. Bonds have started to implode, and they figure all that money is going to jump into stocks at record highs? Well, good luck with that idea, as I have never seen such a bunch of twisted fundamental logic, trying to explain this market rally.  We have already been in a "Stock Mania" since the 2011 bottom, so this hype is just another name for a, "New Era".  When these words get repeated, then the markets usally end up crashing. 

One analyst  says that the markets are more expensive now than 1929, 2000 and 2007! Yikes, that could work in a bearish wave counts favor! 

As long as I can get an alternate to test, then I will do it as this rally, sure can give us a false crash before it charged up yet one more time. It's a low chance, but it would last until the markets drop to the bottom trend line.  With the speed that these markets have moved on, nothing will surprise me once the gyrations start again. The VIX has already lifted off the bottom, but it can still decline a bit again. 

This is also when the 4th wave can come down very deep, and then in another fit of madness, explode to the upside yet one more time.  Anything can set this market off, as some are getting the jitters already.

In the worst case this market could just gyrate around and stretch into early 2017, but this may only happen if the USD cooperates, by crashing.

Sooner or later, the market traders will all try and take profits at the same time, kicking off a mini selling panic.

Sunday, December 4, 2016

T-Bond Crash And The Death Of A 34 Year Bull Market!






I'm sure you all have read about this, "Great Rotation" that is going to happen! Well, I believe it's all a big line of BS coming from a bunch of emotional traders and analysts!  They base this all on the fact that T-Bonds have crashed since the election, when in fact the T-Bonds saw their peaks back in July 2016.  Technically T-Bonds were already in a bear market months before the election, but the public really doesn't care.  They will blame Donald Trump as the cause regardless. 

I show the last high in July, 11, 2016 with a 177 price level.  For close to 34 years, this bull market has endured, but now that T-Bonds have crashed we have to review the entire bull market.  With all the choppy waves, it is best described as one mother of a bear market rally, as choppy waves most always indicate a move going against the larger trend. 

If this is the case, then, nothing short of a complete bond bull market retracement, is in our future.  That would mean a big dip down to the 55 price level. Any Primary degree 4th can also act like a "D" wave, but both of them would get retraced as well. "D" wave tops are the mother of bull traps, as the EWP clearly mentions. 

Anyone that gives you support numbers for what is coming, does not know that the T-Bond bull market is dead. Any support price will just be a temporary holding pattern, and you don't want to try and catch a falling knife with T-Bonds.  Rates, should keep going up for the markets, but that does not mean that the Fed will follow.  The Fed may be forced to follow higher and higher rates as every major super power is trying to bring down the USD as well.  

It may have been a 34 year bull market, but the impending bear market could have a very short life span. 2021 may be a good bottom target date, but only time will help to confirm this. 

Friday, November 18, 2016

US Dollar Potential Bull Trap Review: 2008-2016





This week the US dollar created an upside breakout which many analysts can call a very bullish move.  I see the entire US bullish phase as a big 8 year or so bearish rally, not as some impulse soaring to extreme new record highs.  I love to see those big long spikes on the daily and weekly charts as any vertical move like that can never be maintained.  I see this as a potential "D" wave top in a Primary degree which the EWP book describes as a big bull trap and large degree "D" waves should always be sold when that peak arrives. 

If there are any futures traders that are presently in long positions, then you will get stung soon.  Of course you will also miss out on a great USD short trade at the same time.  No trader presently in a USD long position can stay long on the next trip down. 

There is always a huge amount of sell stops below any present price level, and once they get triggered all the bulls will turn into USD bears very quickly, as the stops get triggered in a domino like action. 

The entire USD bullish phase should eventually get completely retraced, and it may take a few years to complete, but the downward move should give us another zigzag in Intermediate degree. (5-3-5)

This "D" wave could also coincide very well with a Cycle degree top in stocks, so the USD bear market could signal the end of the stock bull market.  USD in a vertical position, along with stocks, and gold pointing down also can produce a massive reversal. At this time, I can see that this three way  trade setup should happen many more times. 

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Gold Bear Trap Review




The wild ride last week sent gold up, then down again.  This does not change any bullish outlook I have at this time. The impending Donald Trump presidency had virtually no effect on any large degree patterns,  that I'm presently working, except for some short term moves which is normal most of the time. 

We see the long spike pointing down, and if we are looking, the USD and stocks are pointing up! 
This is a classic setup for a potential reversal that is not just a short term trip, but a longer move that will force all those bears to completely reverse their positions. 

Of course not too many traders make catching a falling knife a habit, as they are fearful that much more downside is to come.  Of course we become fearful because we are betting with too much of our account net cash, and fear of losing money overrides all other fears, even though we are in a potentially very big bull market, yet to come.  We may see a bit more downside, but we are at about a 48% correction at this time. 

Most gold related stocks also saw about the same percentage of a decline with their corrections.  

We also have a fantastic H&S pattern being setup, and we all  know that they can be very bullish indicators.  How far a Minor degree "C" wave bull market will go, is never perfectly clear, in the beginning of a strong reversal, but I use 2-3 different calculations to come up with a potential $1500-$1600 price target at this time. 

Remember, that above present prices, there are protective buy stops always hanging around, which can turn all these gold bears into instant gold bulls.   

 Donald Trump took the heartland of the USA, as the entire west coast and many states on the east coast voted for Hillary.  I got a big chuckle, how all the expert surveys proved to be wrong. Sounds like what stock market analysts do all the time. 




Saturday, November 5, 2016

Crude Oil 2008-2016 Cycle Degree Review



With these weekly charts the pattern changes and the prices are different as well. Sometimes they are only a few dollars apart, but the 2016 bottom price can be much different.  The Cycle degree peak is still alive and well, which was followed by one crazy bear market that ended up with an extreme bottom in early 2016. I believe this huge bear market can fit into a zigzag with diagonal waves ending in 2016.  Ok, but the 2016 low, may just be just an “A” wave bottom in Primary degree.  This means we have a huge bear market rally coming, but this rally will be so large, that everyone will eventually throw in the white towel and call it a, “Bull market”.  Of course, as soon as the media declare it as a bull market, It will be ready to crash once more. 
Right now oil is still very cheap when compared to gold, with a ratio of a bit over 29:1 so there is lots of upside still built into the oil price.  Since the late 1990s, we have had 3 crude oil gluts and when each glut was declared and recognized by the public, what do think happened? The price of oil soared each time, and in 2016 it was not any different. 
Most experts were tripping over their forecasts and bringing lower forecasts all the time., yet the oil market rallied in a near vertical line.  At our present peaks we have what looks like a great H&S pattern with another recent peak that looks expanded with this chart.  These are two very bullish patterns for the long term, as H&S patterns have been known to be very bullish. Especially when this happens close to another major bottom as well.  
The other very important pattern that is still in progress is the expanded flat, which comes out well in this weekly chart but is invisible on the daily charts.  This has all been happening around the $50 price level, and now has push the price of oil downward. It would not surprise me, if oil stopped closer to the $40 price level before it started to crank up again. 
We hear all sorts of stories about oil becoming obsolete, or that electric cars will take over. I think that is all wishful thinking and stories that analysts write, to make them feel important. There is no shortage of energy on this planet, only the shortage of thinking power to make it happen. 
Since about 2010 there is the start of a huge chart curve where the majority of nuclear power generating plants will be become old and dangerous and slated to be shut down, so don’t call the end to oil just yet. 




Thursday, October 27, 2016

Nikkei, Mother Of Bear Markets Review.




Most of my Nikkei wave counts are on this site so I thought I would add another one as it sure e looks like a massive bear market. Such a big bear market must be at least a SC or GSC degree pattern.  

Looks are always trying to deceive us and this bear market is not any different.  The largest physical waves are equally smaller in degrees, because once they stretch it is the smaller degree levels that come out of hiding, not the big degree levels. 

I have had a Cycle degree as my top in 1990 for a long time and only ran SC degree briefly. This is a triangle in Cycle degree and I must not label any peak higher than Primary degree, no matter for how long it lasts. 

Up to the 2015 peak we are now in the 25th year of this bear market, which has nothing to do with even Fibonacci turning years, but it has more to do with the big 30 year cycle. That 30+ year cycle may come to an end by 2021. 
This is about the same time that US based stocks may also hit a bottom, along with the US dollar.

What is very interesting is that the Nikkei "D" wave peak matches the US dollar "D" wave peak, so close that it's scary.  If the Nikkei has already finished the "D" wave peak, then there is little doubt what the Nikkei will eventually have to do. 

From the 2009 bottom the Nikkei rallied in a zigzag type fashion, to about 21,000 which means that the 2009-2015 rally should get completely retraced, in the next 5 years or so. 

It will not go down in a straight line, but we should get an Intermediate degree counter rally to confuse and trap all the Nikkei bears. 

This chart is also done with monthly bars which eliminate many of the little wild gyrations, saving us a lot of wave counting time. 

Massive bull markets are breeding grounds for massive bear markets, and the Nikkei displays this very clearly. 


Saturday, October 22, 2016

Gold Daily Chart And The Impending Bear Trap!





In late 2015 the gold price had bottomed at about the same time that the US dollar hit a top at the 100 price level. The gold swing of 5 waves up was definitely a diagonal move, and our present decline sure looks like it was just another corrective move.  Commercials added to their long positions last week, which is a very bullish sign. Meanwhile the trend chasing speculators, added some more contracts to their short positions. It is the trend chasers (managed money) that are wrong most of the time, as they are guaranteed to get themselves into a trap. 

Last week gold may have seen its bottom from which it should break out in a "C" wave bullish run that may shock us in how fast and far any gold move can make.  I always look for bullish moves when the general market participants are very bearish, as that is what EWP is all about. If any one of my wave counts do not support the contrarians with their bullish outlook then chances are very good that my wave count is wrong. 

This was very well demonstrated in stocks in early 2009, as wave counters missed an entire bull market, yet all the contrarians were very bullish at that time. Insiders buying their company stock as it was crashing, are considered part of the contrarian crowd.

There is no difference in gold as they all hated gold back in 2015 as well. Look what happened from that 2015  bearish mood. I believe we bottomed at a very high degree, so this gold bullish phase has still lots of room to go north.  Any "C" wave bull market can produce a vertical move as the stock market and the US dollar crashes. 

A bullish gold price could be joined with a bullish Euro move as well, so at this time the Euro bears would also be in a bear trap. 




Thursday, October 13, 2016

US Dollar Cycle Degree Bull Market Review




Many will not agree with this outlook, but for a long time any bearish wave counts I ever did have were failures, as the US dollar kept pushing higher.  You can only beat a wave count to death for so long, after which you have to give up and join the bulls. 

The 2008 bottom was a major bottom that will not be broken for a very long time if ever. I documented that bottom in great detail and from major bearish bottoms, we get major bull markets. 

I also said many times,  that the USD needs far more height, before a major decline can happen, otherwise it would go to zero.  The US dollar will not go to zero as much as everybody thinks or wants it to. 

                                   Of Two Minds - Is the U.S. Dollar Set to Soar?

 Charles Hugh Smith has also published a very bullish USD report and I mentioned to him in email that I can confirm or agree with his assessment at this time.

This bull market is far from over as it is in a cycle degree bull market that could eventually head to a Supercycle degree wave 3 bull market top. 

Yes, this can still correct downward to below 92, but the USD is also in a diagonal bullish move at this time. This happens in 5th waves not in potential 3rd waves.  This clue is telling us, that any  Primary degree 5th wave will be the longest wave. Extended 5th waves happen frequently in commodities and all currencies are commodities as far as I see it. The last time I checked paper and coins are still commodities.

Last week many of the commodity peaks have been recalculated with Cycle degree tops, which oil was the first to peak and gold followed 3 years later in 2011. 

It could take the USD from 2008 to 2021 before it hits a major top which would help the case that the stock market will enter the Cycle degree wave 3 top soon as well. 




This was the profile I created when the USD was approaching a major bottom. Major bottoms are the breeding grounds for major bull markets, so until we complete a major spike to the upside our present  bullish phase is far from over. 








Thursday, October 6, 2016

Euro Cycle Degree Crash Review!





Recently I have been updating several key Cycle degree wave positions. The Euro so called bear market may be much bigger, than we can imagine at this time, in October, 2016.  It is the Euro that is the reverse of the US dollar, as the US dollar is in a huge bull market of the same degree. 

The 2008 peak of the Euro is now home to a Cycle degree wave III position, which is now followed with a 1-2, 1-2, and another 1-2 wave count.  I still expect a rally to new highs, but this should come to a halt, after which the Euro should resume its bear market with a vengeance. 

The Euro should bottom below the 1985 bottom on a Cycle degree 5th wave decline. This decline bottom would then bring any Supercycle degree pattern closer to us, but it also could be the setup for a Euro disappearing act.  

Any newer Euro low, will help to confirm that the Euro bear market is still alive and well.  
-------------------------

Updated October, 14, 2016




The big monthly chart above, I showed you a potential wave three being the largest wave. The decline at this time is extremely choppy, which means we are in a 5th down not a wave 3.  What this does, is tell us that the last 5th wave of a Primary degree, will be an extended one.  This would be an obvious and blatant divergence from gold, as for 8 years or so they were best of friends. 

Since this entire decline sure looks like a diagonal, we have to keep it in mind, that we could be at a Primary degree already.  If that were the case, then yes, the Euro could have a very big upside move.

I will update this posting next month and look for a Primary degree bottom.  

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

S&P Midcap E-Mini 2000-2016 Review




I always like to remind readers that a very high majority of my postings, are made fresh everyday. Once reason I do this is to always get in a good habit of reviewing the past, as without the past, we have nothing to wave count with, or at least anything that makes sense. This Midcap index has a fascinating pattern as it is so close to being a perfect impulse that it is a joy to work with. 

If we start at the 2000 peak, and then the markets crashed produced a flat that even included an expanded pattern. Then from late 2002 the bull market until the 2007 peak, formed a very good impulse as well. That 2007 peak ended up with a wave 3 in Primary degree followed by another flat type crash. 

Now at the bottom of 2009, this chart hit another ending triangle, before it started to soar up again. From the 2009 bottom to our present top is a pattern that does not follow the basic impulse script, but I think it follows the Diagonal5 script very well at this time. 

I have tried every other bearish rally wave count, and they just kept falling apart and therefore should have been abandoned a long time ago. For the last 16 years not a single SC or GSC degree pattern has been confirmed. Not a single set of 5 waves down in Primary degree has ever happened.  There was never any room for an additional 5 waves down in Intermediate degree after the 2009 bottom.  
  
If only all the wave counting experts were screaming bullish warnings at the bottom of 2009, we would have some rich wave counters around. I figured we would get about an 80% recovery, but this proved out to be way too conservative. 

So where does that leave us now as the markets wobble at major highs?  The potential for the markets to be at a close "D" wave top, is just too hard to ignore. Until that triangle is confirmed or fully discredited, the potential for wave three in Cycle degree is still ahead of us. We could swing widely right to 2017 when the 30 year 1987 anniversary date is due. Years ending with a 7, are bad luck numbers, not good luck, as the markets can take a big beating in those years. 

Sunday, August 14, 2016

DJIA Weekly Chart 2007-2016 Review




Last week the markets were pretty slow as many traders are gone for holidays or other reasons. The DJIA has only moved up in small increments which is usally a sign of a slowing market. In the markets, "looks" are always deceiving, especially when it comes to any wave counts we can produce. 

When wave analysts declare a wave count position that "looks" clear, then chances are good this will  not be the right wave count. I have worked the 2009 to 2015 run using every trick in the book. Sooner or later we run out of options, and when that happens, we have to completely redo every wave peak as far back as necessary to find out what went wrong.  

Every major wave analysts had the 2009-2015 bull market as a huge bear market rally, and they were waiting for the "big one" to come. Obviously the big one hasn't arrived, which should be a lesson for all of us, that our wave counts are dramatically off track. 

If a wave count did not prepare you for the 2009 bottom, and the following bull market, then what good is this type of wave analysis?  Now we are on the opposite side of the game, as we try to see if a real top is going to happen. 

It is futile for me to work the same wave count as all the rest, because then I'm just following the herd as well. If the wave count I have, has any validity to it, then the wave positions in 2007 and the 2009 bottom will never be needed to get changed anymore. If a wave count does not work any better in 1-2 months, then chuck it and find a better fitting pattern. 

So if the 2009-2015 bull market is not a big bear market rally, then what can it be? The answer lies in how well we use the diagonal wave pattern, especially the diagonal 5th wave.  I have switched back and forth several times and now the diagonal makes a very good fit.  What degree this diagonal wave is, must be kept in sequence to what happen in early 2009. We should get 5 diagonal waves up, but uncertainty as to where the 4th wave is, still remains. 

My trend lines will fool us, as the markets are between two channel line extremes, and it seems like it is rolling over. Rolling over can mean many things as 4th wave corrections look like they are rolling over. 

All the wave counting I do is based on finding the real 5 waves in Cycle degree, as without them we don't have a base to work with.  If Cycle degree wave 3 is still ahead of us then we can look at the three simple core patterns, that may unfold in the next 4-5 years.

My two favorite corrective patterns for Cycle degree wave 4,  is a zigzag or a flat. Once we calculate out all the required wave counts for these two, then we know all the idealized wave structures we should get.  Any Cycle degree wave 3 peak I want, will last forever as no higher degree can exist without finding the Cycle degree base first.  

The market gyrations has more to do with anticipating a winner in the US elections, as stocks hit world record highs. Any "E" wave decline I may get will have a bottom to it, so until that is cleared up, we have to keep our short term options open. 







Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Crude Oil Bull Market Review



I will occasionally post something on this blog,  but only some bigger wave counts. I am sure you have heard all the bearish ranting going on, regarding the oil's summer decline. We were expecting it, and now we have to find a bottom that will hold. Any wave 2 will do that, but a wild guess at a support price level will not.

Diagonal waves don't have your normal impulse retracements, as a short free fall can turn quickly and soar the other way.   When the mainstream media is this bearish this early, then a rally  or a complete reversal should still be in the cards. Short term we can still have some downside left, but longer term I expect WTI crude oil to double or even triple from todays price levels. 

Not until we get close to a gold/oil ratio below 17:1 will we get close to a major top. In the last few days the gold/oil ratio has been around 29:1 

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Elliottwave5, "The Gateway To Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Analysis"


In the last several months I have been very busy with posting and maintenance on my new site,
 ElliottWave5.Com | The Gateway To Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Analysis.

When I looked at some of my stats I saw that the majority of visitors to my new site came from a direct link from Elliottwave 5.0 "Reboot".  I consider this free blog as a Gateway to Elliottwave5.   I will be doing some posting here, but with no set times or frequencies.  I will try and post something every month or so, but in general there may only be scattered postings to keep the free readers entertained and informed from time to time.

We still get 100-200 pages read per day on this blog, so that is a huge drop from 1000 or so pages read per day. This was all expected as the initial rush to the new site at EW5 has now settled down.

About 2 new members sign up every day to get their month free access to all my work. During the week I also  try and post 2-3 times per day, so there is always a fresh wave count going up during the week.

As of July, 16, 2016 many of the membership fees have been reduced to a flat rate for everyone. What differs between the plans is the amount of time you can buy at once.

This now works better for different budgets, and works out to about $7.50 USD per month.
Like a Netfix subscription, just cheaper. You can sign on with a $15 two month membership, so this effectively doubles your time that you would have had to pay for this entry level membership.  

My theme for the new blog is that it is a "Gateway" which means all my work is done using Cycle degree (or lower) wave analysis.  I started switching to this lower degree in mid 2013. I have not had to switch back up one higher degree again, and so far nothing that the markets have done for the last three years, has changed my mind.  This is the longest time that I have ever stayed in a certain degree, and I view that as a very good sign.  Now we just have to figure out where the home is for the real Cycle degree wave three.  Did a Cycle degree wave 3 top finish behind us in time, or is it still to come in the next few years or so?

My work is dedicated to finding the real home for Cycle degree wave 3, so if you're expecting fancy trade setups, or some impressive SC and GSC degree wave counting gymnastics, you will not find them on the new blog.


All the wave analysts in the world follow a certain degree, but that degree must also get confirmed in some way or another. The best way to confirm any count is when a 5 wave sequence develops and see what degree this 5 wave impulse really is.  Every degree correction has a specific idealized wave count that we should have, and to draw them out is still the best way to visualize them.

The cutoff is the degree of any 5 waves, that the markets can throw at us.   Five waves down in Intermediate degree would be my maximum that I can have after any Cycle degree wave 3 top, so when wave analysts start looking for 5 waves down in Primary degree, I know they are working in a SC, GSC or higher degree level.

The majority of all expert wave analysts today are using at least a wave count, 1-2 degrees higher than what I work with, but they "ALL" need  the same Cycle degree tops like I do.  In a very blunt, and simple statement, "we will never find the highest degree levels if we don't find all the lower degree levels first".  It is strictly a mathematical and sequential thing, so the changing of a degree is not something you should do without any thought or any review.


All the problems with high degree wave counting is that it produces the herd mentality.  The SC degree herd and the GSC degree herd have for 16 years, been chasing a degree and wave pattern that they must have, yet these 5 waves going down, have never happened since the 1930s bear market.

This is a pretty impressive wave count targeting such a rare wave and degree, in well over 80 some years.

Elliott wave is easier to figure out,  if we use well drawn idealized charts, as I always say, that you have to "see" the waves before you can count them. Wave counting is just a secondary act of confirming what we think we see.

What is worse today than it ever was is that expert wave counters make no distinction between an impulse 5 wave move and a diagonal 5 wave move. They are two different weave structures and they should never be labeled with he same sequence. The Diagonal5 like I like to call them, can happen in any 5th wave in any degree, so the Diagoanl5 work like a location beacon.  Since this summer I started to look at the markets with a diagonal perspective, and all I can say is they are everywhere.

They are so numerous, but yet the book only dedicates a small section to diagonal waves.


I leave you with an idealized Diagoanl5 decline, with 5 waves in Minor degree.  They are both the same and if you want to entertain yourself, try duplicating it on the empty template on the right, after you print it out.  Of course that may sound simple enough, but can you do it without any mistakes the first time you try? 




Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Russell 2000, 2000-2016 Review


My postings on Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot" are going to quit today, so hopefully you will join me at the new website. 



This is the cash chart for the Russell 2000 and I still have not found any Cycle degree, wave three top. The implosion into the 2016 bottom is a very well formed impulse wave, but I have to explore it as a potential expanded pattern bottom.

What that means is that if the expanded pattern is true, then at least the Russell 2000 can hit another new record top, closer to the 1300 price level.  We are also approaching the previous 4th wave peak, which is a perfect place to turn and then head back south.

I do not want to completely throw out the wave two option, but it could be a wave two in Intermediate degree. If that declined, then 720 would be a 61% correction, which may not be deep enough to play out all 5 waves.  We know we are not going to get 5 waves down in Primary degree as that would take the Russell 2000 well below zero, and that will never happen.   





Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Gold Intraday Review: April, 26, 2016


This will be my last gold posting on this blog as I will be switching to our new site by May 1st or 
 sooner.  

  

So far gold has made another bullish looking advance, but this is not a pure impulse, but can only fit into a potential diagonal wave structure. Since the beginning of April, 2016 the gold waves have not been the happy bullish waves, we would expect in a true impulse wave structure, but the patterns have been fighting upward all the time.

This is not good in the long run as all these bullish looking waves will eventually all get retraced. $1208 is the low to beat, but hopefully we will see one more high for this gold bullish phase. 

Constantly posting a gold price where it will stop means very little as the pattern is far more important. How it acts or behaves on its journey up is critical to understand as investors can get caught thinking we are in a secular gold market. This I don't think is the case at this time. 

Above all, we want to milk and bullish run to the max, even if it was a fake. Fake money can be turned into real cash when you sell. 

As always, we want to max out the bullish run with any Elliott Wave Count, but it can be much harder to tell if these fake runs are much shorter.  This is especially true for gold stocks. 

Gold stock insiders flooded the gold market with buying in mid 2013 which was very well broadcasted at that time. 

Hopefully we will get the same signals if and when they start to sell.  Steven Jon Kaplan may broadcast it as he is one of the few contrarians that track this kind of data. True Contrarian

  


    


Mini DJIA Intraday Review: Here We Go Again?



I want to let all readers know that Elliott Wave 5.0 Will be changing its name and moving to this new site by May 1st or sooner.  All readers to the new site will get a free month while we are in transition.  My postings to this blog will slow down with my commentary reduced as well. 



Here we go again as the markets seem to be starting into another impulse type move.  If this is the case, then the DJIA can breakout with yet another new high and there even could be a possibility of creating a new bull market extreme.  

Since I have what looks like a small degree correction, but if a newer high is lethargic or very slow in coming, then we could end with another "C" wave peak followed by another crash. 

Monday, April 25, 2016

Important Notice: Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot" Is Moving.


I would like to inform all my readers that by May, 1, 2016 I will no longer be posting on this blog.
All new posts will start in May on our new web site.

ElliottWave5.Com | The Ultimate ElliottWave Charting System Online Since 2010

All readers that sign in on the new blog will get a free month until they have to decide if they like to use a paid membership structure. 

All those that have donated already will get a free year membership at the new web site. 

US Dollar 2010-2016 Elliott Wave Count Review.



The US dollar has been very frustrating to count out, but I will give it a chance to see if it still is going to hit close to my 92 price level with a 4th wave bottom. My "D" wave rally should still see a complete retracement so we have to see if that will still happen. 

Commercial traders are still net short on the US dollar, which is still bearish. It is when they switch to a wide net long position that gold may see some real problems.  Gold has been having difficulty in maintaining a bullish phase, so this could be a problem. 



Mini SP500 2007-2015 Review:



We know that all wave counts are only temporary unless they are perfect. Having a perfect wave count is a myth and an illusion on the part of any wave counter.  I show the wave 3 in Cycle degree at a top in 2015,  but my correction fits better into a small flat than a zigzag. 

A flat leading into a bigger flat is very rare if not impossible, so my wave three would be like Humpty Dumpty ready to fall off the wall. This would also make the 2011 bottom as the start of a massive 5th wave extension which we know was a stock mania move. A stock mania move has stocks and the US dollar roar, as gold and commodities generally crash. 

Stock mania's  have happened many times in market history and they will happen again and again.
We have to spot these moves before they are ready to happen as right now this stock mania is hibernating.  

If and when the Cycle degree is actually finished then we would need a Primary degree flat, or a Primary degree zigzag to complete the 4th wave bottom.   I don't think some Cycle degree triangle is in the cards as the solar cycle will kill that very quickly.  After all the Roaring 2020's will change all that.

As long as there is the slimmest chance that a Cycle degree 5th wave has "not" completed then there is no chance of a SC or GSC degree wave count to infect us! Markets must travel in sequence to the degree not in random fashion. 

Donations Thank You.

I would like to give a big thanks to Peter. D for his generous donation of $25 USD.

E-Mini SP500 Intraday Review: And The Decline Continues!

In the future, I will reduce my intraday postings on weekends and Mondays, but use that time to review some of the bigger wave counts.  


Here we go with another intraday look as this market seems to still be in an impulse heading down. 
I have to start with very small degree levels as my highest level I am showing right now is Micro degree and my smallest is Miniscule degree.  

I have what looks like a perfect expanded flat that formed as the "C" wave also pushed a bit higher playing its part as well. Of course, all this is great, but I know price action can change so fast that at any time this wave count could fall apart. As I post the market has shot back up so we could be at another "ABC" instead of a wave 1-2

I have scratched my head, looking at the big picture and I have not come up with a good wave count for the top.