Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Fake News, Fake Wave Counts!






Sometime ago I came across a Gold wave count, which I have re-created above. I'm sure we have all read about fake news, but there is a bigger insidious problem, which is fake wave counts.  They may not be deliberately placed fake wave counts, but they still cause you to lose money in the long run. 

Most wave counters are just hobbyists and dabble in it to impress us, others just want a means to create short term trade setups. Wave experts that create short term setups, do this because they have no knowledge of the bigger picture. 

Since 2000 EWP experts have burst on the scene and the majority are trapped, with the lure of high degree wave counting.  I know,  because I was trapped myself for well over a decade. I already tired this wave count a long time ago, back when gold was soaring to about $1000. EWI was extremely bearish on gold for the entire trip up to the $1000 price level, so there was no way investors were prepared for a bull market in gold back in 1999.  All the contrarians sure we're prepared, as insiders were buying at a steady clip, and Steven Jon Kaplan screamed, "Buy Gold Now"!

This wave count I spotted is all that this analyst showed us, so if we know our basic scripts, then we should be able to figure out, the two missing wave positions that he must have.  This wave count has Cycle degree wave two down at about the $500 price level, which I have no problem with, for a potential wave 2 bottom.  Of course in the real world,  this wave count could drop well below $400.

If and when it does this then the analyst will change his wave count to reflect a bigger bearish picture, and as soon as the paint dries on this bearish wave count, gold will turn and soar.  The next thing you know you are left behind or chasing a wild bull market. 

All the Fib retracement levels mean nothing, if our entire wave count is so far of course that it is impossible to be any use at all. 

Of course, there is another 5 wave sequence missing, that must also be filled in, including the exact degree of these 5 waves.  

Ever wonder why so many rich people are contrarians, who have never counted out a single wave in their entire lifetime, yet most all wave analysts missed every major bull market. 

Not a single billionaire has said that yes, I have created billions on my wave counting ability. 

The real world wave counts are never what they seem, as these are wave structures, put out to fool all the lazy wave analysts.  I visited my friend on Friday who, told me that it has taken him well over 5 years to become a contrarian, and I mentioned to him, that the only important wave count is the one that makes the contrarians rich! 

I'm sure that if I had a wild bearish wave count, I would get an email from my friend asking me "What I had been smoking".  Learning the EWP takes a good 4 years or more and works best for the contrarians in the world. 

If you think that buying low and selling high is a barbaric way of  investing, then I leave you with a small saying, 

"You're either a contrarian, or you become a victim" - (paraphrasing Rick Rule)