Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Sunday, August 27, 2017

Idealized Cycle Degree Wave 3-4-5

The idealized chart above was created from a template. A template has no labels on it, which can be used for any other degree when we need it. In the chart above, we have an idealized wave 3-4-5 in Cycle degree, ending with a Supercycle degree (SC) wave 3 on your top right.

I just finished creating a Supercycle degree wave 3-4-5 and a Grand Supercycle degree wave 3-4-5, which will be updated on my blog.

When we print them out, these 3 sets of idealized charts will all link together. This specific chart is for a Cycle degree top, and our present market, followed by a Cycle degree wave 4 correction (bear market).  The Cycle degree correction is one move, but divided into 3 corrective waves in Primary degree.

I use a flat as my basic correcting pattern which is a 3-3-5 wave count in Primary degree. I have mentioned it many times in that I believe that the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) is just one big impulse wave, which has a wave zero as its starting point. Without people waves can't form, so the last Great American Ice Age which ended about 20,000 years ago, is a good place for wave zero.

For the stock market wave 3 must always be the longest and this can be seen the best in the DJIA. The majority of expert wave analysts are all counting from a wave 4 base in 1932 and 1975. This makes the 5th wave the longest, counting from both locations. This breaks all the rules in the EWP.
It is the 5th wave that has the weakest fundamentals, and it would never last over the time span of multiple generations.

Extending the 5th waves will always move us into a higher degree without knowing it, unless we go back 100 years in time and fix it. At a minimum my work in Cycle degree is 2 degree levels lower than what the majority of wave analysts are working.

From my Cycle degree perspective, not a single move from the 2000 peak has ever confirmed any SC or GSC degree wave counts.  Any 5 waves in Primary degree have never materialized anywhere, which we need, just to correct a SC degree market.

Being out by one degree may not sound like much, but one degree can make a 60% difference in our forecasts. Any 61%, is the short version of the (.618) Fibonacci ratio, and 2 degree levels could mean being out by a 2.618 ratio.

Cycle degree wave 5 and SC degree wave 3 may not arrive until 2029, and maybe GSC degree wave 3 may take until 2129.

Our present Cycle degree impulse has been running since 1932 with the Cycle degree 4th wave ending closer to 2021. This would be a Fibonacci 89 year long sequence. 2021 is also 100 years from the 1921 bottom, after which the markets soared for 8 years to the 1929 top.