Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Comments on True Contrarian's Last Posting !

    I consider Steven Kaplan's commentary critical when I look at the markets from an Elliott Wave perspective. I would also make it very clear he does not care about any Elliott Wave from anyone including anything I post.  He does is own technical analysis from a contrarian perspective. Many, if not all comments that I have read from him is a contrarian look, and if my wave counts do not reflect his outlook at major turnings then my wave count is wrong and needs major adjustments. In the 2008 crash he called the subsequent bull marked correctly and in fine detail.  He was 100% correct as the ensuing bull market was the biggest rally since the depression.
He also saw the gold stock meltdown coming as he was short, and he also saw the bottom of the gold market coming as his GTC Ladder of orders started kicking in with GDX!
No Elliott Wave analysis should ever conflict with any well established contrarian, it should only confirm them, as Elliott Wave is a contrarian look at the markets as well.  


The behavior of the Russell 2000 is especially important. In 2007, both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 set new highs in June and July, but in October, the S&P 500 climbed to a new all-time peak while the Russell 2000 made significantly lower highs. This was an important warning of the impending severe bear market which persisted until early March 2009. If the S&P 500 makes a new high during the next several months, while the Russell 2000 does not, then that would have especially bearish implications for all equity sectors through 2015-2016. It is rare that a true bear market begins with a bang as in 1929 or 1987; much more frequently, it starts with a whisper and is barely noticed for perhaps an entire year, when all of a sudden everyone wakes up simultaneously and realizes that they're no longer making money on their investments. At that point, the downtrend often dramatically accelerates.

Since the end of Nov 2013 I have been very bearish on the general stock markets and with his commentary above he is making the same assessments.  Bear markets do not always open up with a bang, and sometimes they can run for a year before the public figures out what's going on.
When Mr. Kaplan turns bearish on the general stock market, you better run as fast as you can because it's going down! He knows how to read the markets "extremely" well and he bet against all bearish calls made by any top Elliott Wave expert at the time.  This is wild when you think about it, as he is making a living and manages a hedge fund, betting against Elliott Wave experts!

This is going to be the same when the gold market hits it's top. If Mr. Kaplan turns bearish on Gold stocks, at the same time when insiders in commodity producing companies are selling like crazy, then it will be time to unload every bit of gold and silver asset we have and take all cash off the commodity table as he will read the top of the gold market very well.  He is bullish on gold related assets and until he turns bearish on gold stocks,  everything is still a go.

The single most important signal that I will also be watching for, is when the gold stock or mining stock insiders start to turn bearish by their increasing stock sales of their own companies.