Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Sunday, November 29, 2015

SP500 2000-2015 Review!




With this wave count I have moved my Cycle degree into the future, which is basically the same as traveling back in time with a stroke of the keyboard.  We are not going to find out if the big picture is close until we get a 5 wave run. Yes the 2009 to present bullish phase is an ugly impulse, but it has lasted longer than any bull market since the 2000 peak.

The 2007 peak is a bit higher than the 2000 peak, which, if it were a correction instantly puts it into an expanded pattern (flat). The the crash of 2007 down in early 2009 we had a very steep decline, which fits another "ABC" crash very well.  If the 2009 bottom was another "A" wave, then we would be counting everything with a double flat, or an expanded flat leading into a bigger expanded flat.  

Sorry, that will not fit no matter how hard we try. Twin expanded flats do not happen as patterns always alternate, besides any expanded wave structure is "extremely" bullish once it has played out. 
Imagine that our present top can be a "B" wave top and it crashes to just a bit below 2009 levels. When everybody is preaching doom and gloom and a depression is just around the corner you would already know the markets will roar back and exceed any 2015 high by a large margin.  

Even if a future Cycle degree wave 4 crash happens, that does not mean that the SP500 must fall below 2009 levels.  Any 4th wave crash could stop well short of the 2009 bottom, then turn and roar up 5 waves in Primary degree.  The start of solar cycle #25 towards 2020-2021 or so, will throw a monkey wrench into all bearish wave counts.  

 For now I will try and keep this wave count going for the next month or so, but if the 2009 bottom is my first "A" wave bottom, then we could get the 5 wave impulse  and the markets would pass that 2009 low.  For the "A" wave to work for the 2009 bottom, then the 2007-2009 crash must be a zigzag. 

Nowhere since the 2000 top has the market displayed a clean set of 5 waves down in Primary degree, nor in Intermediate degree. This tells me that we are so far off track to confirm any SC or GSC degree wave counts that it becomes a joke.  The EWP book tells us exactly what is technically required to correct any degree, yet they keep counting in SC or GSC degree.  15 years of market action and they still have not been confirmed SC degree, but yet they counted a SC degree correction only 3 years long from 1929-1932.