Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Crude Oil Intraday review: Bottom What Bottom?



We had a bottom yesterday on this February contract at about the $35.35 price level. This is  also within 50 cents of the WTI crude oil cash price, but WTI would still have to crash to the $33.20 price level to match that 2008 world oil glut bottom.  If oil is going to break the 2008 bottom with clarity is irrelevant at this time, as a "C" wave bull market will change the outlook dramatically.   It may look or sound counter productive to look for a bullish wave count when all the fundamentals tells us otherwise. 

That's all fine and dandy, but the fact is bull markets start from major bear market bottoms when nobody expects one.  All we have to do is go back in history to any major bottom, and you will see major bull markets are born in the depths of despair.  The oil glut of 1999 is one great example and the small bull market from the 2008 glut is another. There were a few more during the 1990's and that is just crude oil we are talking about.  In stocks the biggest depression created the biggest, longest bull market in history, corrections included. 

The only thing is we can't put a perfect time table to this when this will happen, or if there is still more downside to go, but sooner or later the low for 2015 should be completed. It would fit perfectly if the low of Dec 21 held. As extremes go the gold/oil ratio has hit 30:1 again, which makes it about three times this ratio has been hit since last August. I should get one more bullish consensus report today and we will find out if this has shifted down as well.