Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Friday, December 4, 2015

E-Mini SP500 2000-2015 Elliott Wave Count Review: Back To A Triangle?

I spend all day with the Apple tech support trying to help me fix my Key Chain Access issues. They had to log in remotely to help me and she did a great job as my patience was wearing extremely thin by that time. 

Then I spent another hour with my provider to make sure any mail issues were corrected as my main email would not allow me to send mail out. He also did a great job. 

Hopefully everything will be ok. 

This chart is set with 1000 custom bars on a weekly chart which allows me to cover more time.  I also  reviewed the bigger wave count and the 2000 top matches my 1937 top. The 1937 top has been my wave 1 in Cycle degree so the 2000 peak matches this without creating some mythical throw-over. I transposed the top trend line (not showing) to the bottom and it touched the 2009 low pointing to just about the 1000 point level.  So you are looking at a 77 years to the 2009 bottom. 

I dragged the top trend line down to get my bottom trend line without creating any spill over in both trend lines.  I think forcing a throw-over is a very subjective trend line and mostly inaccurate. Wave counters also forced the trend lines from the 2007 peak down to the 2009 bottom for an extreme manipulation of the trend lines.  The 2007 peak was very low compared to others but it still went higher than the 2000 peak forcing it into the expanded flat type pattern. My wave count above is no longer a flat but this time I am switching back to a triangle for the SP500. Technically speaking the highest degree 5 wave sequence I can have in a Cycle degree triangle is 5 waves up or down in Minor degree.   At present we could be still fighting for a "D" wave top and we must get another three wave pattern crash in the shape of a zigzag. 

This makes the 2009 to present rally a big zigzag with an expanded "B" wave correction.  

Ok, the bottom trend line is obviously in the way and will be set to block any potential "E" wave decline. I have no problem with that happening, but I would not want to see a running "e" wave at all. 

The big issue will be in the next bear market is if we get a clear set of 5 waves down , or a clear 3 wave crash pattern.   We would have to wait until guys like Warren Buffet says stocks are cheap or news of insiders buying, news of mom and pop investors fleeing the markets and the bullish consensus would also have to be extremely low.  

This would all have to play out by the time solar cycle #25 has started, we will know when it has started when the scientists report the polarity change of the sunspots. This is expected by 2020-2021. 

Once again I am sure the big wave counters will be caught with their pants down, (like the guy in the movie Cowboys and Aliens) as their price targets will not even be close yet.  Using price as a potential turning point is just a mythical guess as previous 4th wave bottoms are worthless forecasts if the wave counts are wrong to begin with. 

Most big wave counts have the 1929-1932 market as a wave 3-4 in Supercycle degree (SC), but I think this is false as markets will not fall that deep, and besides I don't think 4th wave crashes produce depressions.  No depression arrived in 2009 and I don't think one will come in the next 5 years. Another deep recession sure, but not a depression as that would kill all asset classes including gold and silver without stock mania.