Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Monday, December 14, 2015

Gold 1975-2015 Monthly Chart Elliott Wave Count Review



Going way back to the 1970's in gold's history, we had a correction into about 1976 before the gold price cranked up again and added a massive last leg to its bullish cycle. In 1974 I was earning just under $4.00 Canadian per hour, which worked out to working for  about one gram of gold per hour. 
 I was able to save money and buy some toys. If I was to keep up to the inflation and maintain my lifestyle and the purchasing power of our USA/CAD dollar, I would have to be making a minimum of $34.50 just to stay even with any purchasing power I had in those days.  

The correction in the early mid 1970's used to be labeled a Primary degree correction, which no longer made any sense to me so I drop that era down by one degree level. Of course, this has the cascading effect  all the way into any future you want to forecast in.   The next sequence in the Idealized chart would be a Primary degree wave three top which was followed by a 19 year or so bear market ending close to 1999. 

Then we had a short blurb to the upside followed by another decline lasting less than two years. You have heard me repeat that saga of how everyone hated gold at that time and the bullish consensus was about 14%.  In short, we were in a gold glut and gold depression at that time. Then look what happened, gold turned and soared right until 2011 but with a wild correction during 2006-2008.  

Next thing you know the gold market was at a shortage and forecasts started to soar as banks were already buying. Every ridiculous price forecasts were forecast as no number was unreasonable, after all the USA was going to implode and you had to protect yourself! What a crock of bullshit that turned out  to be! The bullish consensus hit well over 90% and then gold and silver started to implode. 

This present decline has gone on long enough and if we were still in an Intermediate correction it should have finished by now. If I stay true to the sequence, then the next wave count in 2001 should be a Cycle degree top and our next choice would be at what number. This would be Cycle degree wave 3. I'm going to keep Cycle degree labeled for now as gold should have turned long ago.  

We are already at a very bearish bottom, but that does not mean much as we could be in the very early stages of a triangle or at an "A" wave.  Even then we should get a substantial bounce and it would be a wild and woolly move with overlapping wave structures.  

So far we have only had small moves which were all bearish rallies as they all retraced each rally 100% of the time.