Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Thursday, December 17, 2015

GSCI S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Review: 1999-2015 With Solar Cycle Commentary

From the 1999  GSCI bottom, Commodities were repealed upward from a solar cycle top.  This lasted about 8 years, as a solar cycle bottom was in progress. What happened next was the complete opposite again, as commodities were repelled to the downside as the solar cycle charged upward in activity.  In 2011 and 2014 we saw double tops in the solar cycle which again commodities were repelled to the downside form these peaks.  Since we are still 5 years away from another major solar cycle bottom I would expect any big rally to be a 1/2 way rally. This could be a "D" wave rally for this GSCI.

If this GSCI index sees another major low say in 2021 or so, matching a low in the solar cycle, then we should expect the opposite to happen sending commodities into a massive bull market.

The sun and its cycles have a huge impact on commodity cycles, but it always seems to repel in the opposite direction. Alternation is the name of the game!  When this crash will stop is impossible to call a bottom exactly at the right price, but we are a few points away from a massive double bottom and a potential downside breakout.   It is also impossible to tell at what price a SC or GSC degree bottom would kick in. The key I see, is that flat like top between 2011 and 2014 as this has the look of a type of a"B" wave.  Just about every "B" wave that ever came out will get retraced by a move 100% or more.