Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Sunday, December 27, 2015

HUI Potential Cycle Degree Triangle Review




Gold made a good run last week, but the HUI and gold stocks in general were lethargic. This is not a good sign and I had to take a different look at it.  If the 2011 top is actually a "D" wave top in Primary degree, then gold stocks and the HUI still would have much further to fall.   At a minimum it should match the late 2000 bottom, but then this could be the bottom of a Cycle degree 4th wave. 

Of course gold stocks can still fool around and frustrate all of us wave counters a lot longer than we have the patience for, but the bull market that will follow will shock us. Another 5 waves up in Pimaray degree would finally have to play out and it should surpass and retrace this entire HUI bear market.

All it takes is one more good bullish run in stocks and the US dollar roars one more time, then gold stocks would fall like a rock, much like 1999-2000 or like a part of 2008 or 2012.  Take your pick as there were many short free falls in gold stock history.  

During that sideways mess from 2013 to 2014, that could work as the B wave with a triangle. Triangles indicate that a big degree change is also coming, and it would be a minimum of one degree higher than the Intermediate degree zigzag that I'm now showing. In other words I would have to land on a Primary degree bottom.  

We could still get a counter rally, which would make our "A" wave bottom soon and send gold stocks soaring in a "B" wave bull market. This is my least preferred option at this time. 

Contrarians will think I am crazy for even suggesting a complete bull market retracement but that is what can happen in any triangle big or small.