Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Monday, December 21, 2015

Natural Gas Bear Market Review: Is There A Glut?



They have been talking about the Natural gas glut for years, but not nearly as often as the crude oil glut. Either way there is a glut but it can change dramatically in a short period of time. I don't cover NG that often, but I have mentioned that NG had to fall below that $2 price level. This has now happened, but after looking at it on the intrady level I think NG will make one more new low. 

Natural Gas has a very complicate structure like many commodities do, but I think that 2012 bottom was an expanded bottom which now has already completely retraced. If NG continues with it choppy pattern for years to come then I would be looking for another three wave bull market in the future. 

This could all be seasonal as summer cooling or winter heating sends NG price soaring and then crashing. It would take a severe drop in inventories to sustain a big bull market and I don't see that happening just yet. 

The bullish consensus has been very low all ready at 12% and it hit this last week. Major bull markets have started with only 14% bullish consensus so anything can happen.  I haven't done a detailed study on what happens during the solar cycle bottoms, but at the last bottom in 2008 NG was repelled to the downside. Another NG peak in 2014 which was also peaking in solar cycle #24, NG was repelled to the downside as well. We can still get rallies from a 1/2 way solar cycle so we may not have to wait until the 2020 or 2021 solar cycle bottom. 

Any strong rally that NG makes, and is choppy with overlapping waves, then this would be a bearish rally and the NG price would come crashing down again.  The best we could hope for is that a diagonal 5 waves are ending and then a much bigger bullish cycle could happen.