Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Monday, December 14, 2015

Our Canadian Dollar Sinking Like A Rock: Weekly Chart Elliott Wave Count Review




How low can our Canadian dollar still fall to? The next major bottom is when this chart reads about .62 cents matching the 2002 bottom.  I can hear the contrarian screams already, but they have not been able to call a bottom price for our Canadian dollar as well.  Just last week the bullish consensus bottomed at 13%, but even though  this is a low extreme number I'm going to spread the extreme numbers a bit by making 10% and lower as my extremes and 90% and higher on the upside.  

This 62 cent Canadian dollar, would be a complete bull market retracement, reflecting a potential zigzag bull market from the early 2002 bottom to the late 2007 top. (Fibonacci 5 years).

This would be the worst scenario at this time, but a "C" wave bull market can throw a monkey wrench into this entire decline. Our dollar is a commodity dollar and inside the US dollar basket. 

As long as we are a big trading partner to the USA our dollar will remain in their basket. It will have no choice but to travel inversley to the US dollar. 

Gold stocks also reflect our Canadian dollar somewhat and they may even be on the same wave count. Only more time may clear that up. 

It looks like our CAD is not impressed with our new PM Justin Trudeau, as good photo ops will only last so long as the previous government dumped a major debt load onto the new party in power.