Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Friday, December 11, 2015

S&P GSCI Index Elliott Wave Count Review: Wave Counts Can Never Stop A Bear Market!

This is the Goldman Sachs commodities index  and we get to see a wave pattern a bit diffrenert than the straight oils have been giving us.  I also want to give my readers a heads up that you may be seeing more and more of a potential wave three top in Cycle degree going into 2016. Most of them will be at the 2008 peak of commodities.  Others may contain "D" wave tops. but when they all tumble together many big wave counts will sync up again. 

I draw my trend lines that do not show the obvious as I would have to show you a throw-over on the top line to do that.  I completely bypassed my wave 3 in Intermediate degree. One major reason for that is that my Primary degree 5th wave is a diagonal wave. The angle of my trend lines are about a 50 degree up angle. Which is just a bit steeper than the angle from my bottom left (South West) to the top right, (North East) 

Once the 2008 peak topped and the world was fully convinced that a commodity shortage was in place. The markets had enough of the bullish consensus bullshit, and then proceeded to crash,  leaving the world experts in shock because they never saw this coming. They were spewing out fundamental garbage at a horrendous rate, and much of it was blamed on China. We also can't forget the Peak Oil  rants spread across the headlines in 2008. 

All within one year the GSCI index imploded virtually eliminating any wave subdivisions or making it impossible to see what pattern develop down into late 2008. Usually they contain an "ABC" of some type. The 2008 crash also produced a down angle of close to 87 degrees which is one of the steepest I have ever measured. 

 Sure the 2008 crash could have been a Cycle degree 4th wave, but then another impulse must develop as the next step in an idealized sequence.  Wouldn't that be a shocker if this present wave count held on and we are ending on a wave two bottom in Primary degree.  We definitely have, the bigger physical size for it to fit. 

Once the index started to rally I could see a pretty good looking impulse wave develop which I will use as a zigzag at this time.  Then the bubble burst again in 2011 and the GSCI went sideways to the 2014 peak. From the 2014 peak commodities  imploded once again. That 2013-2014 top looks like somebody had a bad hair day is a another "B" wave top but a smaller degree.  The market from 2011 to 2014 is the key to understand as the majority couldn't care less what the pattern was but they were only concerned about price.  If my pattern from the 2011 peak of 2014 is correct, then this is a type of "B" wave and this index will eventually retrace all its losses with complete retracement. 

The next bigger potential "ABC" crash  was the 2008 crash, so this "ABC" should also get technically retraced.  That's not rocket science if my Cycle degree wave three placements is correct.  When this will all come true is another story, as I may not be around when it happens. 

I still believe we have never entered the SC degree world yet and the last thing would be in the GSC degree world.  There is a very specific type of wave structures that have to happen at one point in time during a SC or GSC degree correction and that has never happened yet in any commodity.