Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Monday, December 14, 2015

SPX Crash And Rallies Review

This SPX chart shows we had a dramatic rally from August 2015 to early November 2015 before it proceeded to die again. Today it ended at a fairly sharp spike to the downside, as the VIX also made a spike but to the upside. This usually calls for a correction or the end of a trend.  If a full set of 5 waves down is still to come then any "E" wave decline will travel too far and take too long to play out. 

It could happen that this is the trailing "C" wave and that it will stretch to the bottom trend line. If the bigger impulse is in progress (5 waves down in Minor Degree) then all bets are off, as this decline, then must perform, and travel much deeper as many more smaller impulse waves must compound.  

Right now I am trying to salvage this wave count as a potential wave 4 correction, but we would have to wait and see what happens when and if the decline hits the bottom trend line. 

On late Fridays or on weekends I will try and review the bigger pictures as it seems I am looking at intraday wave patterns during the week.  I would rather not post anything on Mondays or only very little posting as the markets heat up closer to mid week. Wednesdays can be turning days, with the trend, then staying until Friday. 

Bullish consensus really does not support a big crash at this time, and some of the commercial traders positions seemed to be that they are net long. Both of these indicators can change with lightning speed, so I don't read much into it at this time.