Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Monday, December 7, 2015

US Dollar Intraday Rally Review




For the time being I'm going to keep my impulse wave count alive. This rally has gone far enough and should reverse if another 5th wave leg down is going to happen.  So far so good, but if the bottom is in and the expanded flat is true, then the US dollar could charge higher even from these levels. 

Gold has reacted to this US dollar rally by heading down with January Crude oil crashing to newer lows. It's a bad hair day for the few main commodities that I keep waving counts on. 

Commercials added to their net short positions last week, which is a good sign. As usual the speculators do the opposite as they are the trend chasers.  It shows that the US dollar is not on any screaming bull market that will never finish, but the bullish consensus readings can still kick up past 91%. 91% is already in the extreme range, but in this case I leave my options open that this 91% number will increase. The more bulls that become present, the less there are left to come in.  In other words the bullish consensus report perfectly reflects the greater fool theory!

I look over the weekly US dollar pattern on a regular basis and there is a good chance that we may be approaching a "C" wave top in Intermediate degree, which means that the Cycle degree wave three bottom may have occurred in 2008.