This is the February WTI contract and oil has broken to a new bear market low, with a recent low of about $38.30. The January 2009 low to beat would be about $33.20. As I write we are starting into an impulse wave that I would hate to call a top on at this time. Even a major bottom has been hard to call as well.
Overall a big Primary degree "ABC" flat crash is not completed as the best fit right now would be a running flat. Running flats are pretty rare, but not impossible. Either way we have not had the critical downside
breakout that is characteristic on any "C" wave decline.
Also, any Cycle degree 4th wave correction would take much longer to play out as a "C" wave bull market needs to fill out another "B" wave top or. Oil has made a stunning run already this morning, but it will take some time see if a bigger move is in the cards.
As there have been all sorts of stories that this world oil glut is here for many years and now that OPEC has disintegrated, prices have only one way to go and that is down. When the majority is thinking about the bearish future, the markets will turn at a major reversal or produce a counter rally that will force the majority to change their way of thinking.
Bloomberg has also mentioned that they see a $30 bottom for oil, but yet they have no clue what they see past that number. Conventional fundamental economists ad forecasters have a bad track record for calling major bear markets or major bull markets and this time it will not be any different.
That 2011-2014 top will eventually get retraced because oil it still looks like the entire crash from the 2008 top is a correction.