Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Another WTI Crude Oil Intraday Chart Review: Keep On Trucking!




So far my impulse wave pattern has held, but a correction is due as spikes like these cannot maintain their speed. The more vertical the faster the move is made. This is just common 2 dimensional chart physics.  From two sets of two parallel I could have used none of them would have done any good at all, and chances are the trend lines would have given us false readings. 

This 4th wave did not dip into my first wave and that is a main rule that cannot be broken in an impulse. 
 A quick calculation could get oil up to the $35-$36 price level before another big correction should be anticipated.  The big bears will be easy targets for the bulls as they know how to trigger stop loss orders.  The bigger the bragging becomes as to how low oil can go. Then this is also like painting a big red circle  on your bearish contracts. This is another prime example, how bears can turn into instant bulls when something has been pushed too far to one side.

The gold/oil ratio has softened some of its insane extreme and is hovering around the 35:1 ratio

Why should oil go up when it is in one of the worst gluts in history?  Price moves are the forecasters of fundamental changes yet to come, as prices are far more sensitive than fundamentals are. 

Ever major oil glut we ever had in the past has been stopped dead and a super bull market or major bear market rally has ensued. Is it going to be different this time?  I doubt it, but it may go slower and take longer to play out. Some say we are at the end of the oil era, but if that is the case, then oil will truly flat line at $10, my gold/oil ratio would no longer work, and the oil charts would look more like the Tulip Mania after it went bust, or when the whale oil era ended.  

There is no lack of energy in the world today, as the only thing that is lacking is the right people to develop better and safer sources.  Back in 2008 they stored crude oil in big tankers as that has not even been maxed out yet today.  Many of the storage and pipelines have been changed so they can get rid of excesses more quickly.