Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Friday, January 22, 2016

Crude Oil Cash Contract 1986-2016 Elliott Wave Count Review



My trend lines will always be parallel in nature as I care little about any throw-under, because it is the stability of the trend I am more interested in. Any wave structure that is not a perfect impulse will also traverse my trend lines. There is a slim chance if the top will ever throw-over this trend line. 
The picture I am painting is that of a triangle inside a Primary degree "B" wave, and this will get confirmed if we get another three wave bullish phase in the next 2-3 years.

Every different chart produces different wave counts and with this cash chart I can only show weekly or bigger charts. On a cash oil, and cash gold basis, the gold/oil ratio hit 37:1 recently which is an extreme in any one of the languages in our galaxy.  

This usually dictates that a major turning will arrive and hopefully we are the start of one.

When we look at the mid 2014 peak and follow the crash down it is full of gaps that are not visible on other charts.  The last top gap is around the $80 price level, but that still will not clear the 2011-2014 sideways price action. I think oil will clear or retrace this sideways price action of a "B" wave as the entire crash was an "ABC" crash in the zigzag class. 

The best case longer term outlook is that crude oil will see a major double top or a bit more of the 2008 oil peak. That would also finish a Primary degree "B" wave top. Guess what we should get once this "B" wave is completed? If you guessed 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, then keep that thought.  Sure, I can speculate up and down the idealized wave count, but if the entire structure is wrong, then none of it will come true. Either way all the same logic applies to any triangle "B" wave, the only thing that will be different is the degree.