Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Crude Oil Review: Carry On Crashing And A New Bear Market Low!

With stocks crashing, China crashing, what hope is there for oil to make a bullish showing! There is no way in stopping any trend until it is fully played out and all we can do is count the waves and try and track it the best way we can.  I will never knowingly cheat on my 2 trend lines by creating a throw-under or throw-over picture. When the trend falls away from these trend lines it will be very clear. Any big rally should take out the top trend line, but  the bottom trend line may also still get hit.

The bearish indicators are at extremes which helps to tell us that this decline will eventually end and then reverse. Now it is a matter of waiting until we hit the low that will last us for all of 2016. 

My gold/oil ratio today hit a new record as we came very close to 32:1. I cannot repeat it more often as this has surpassed anything I have ever calculated at any glut bottom. We can now buy 32 barrels of oil with one US dollar gold ounce, compared to just before the 2014 crash, which was only at about 12:1 

This will all revert back to the mean and then exceed it again in due time. Hopefully we will get our bottom soon just to throw something else in our way.  There still could be a violent counter rally and another slump, but I would be now looking for a 2016 low crude oil price. 

A nice spike is forming to the downside so this is very encouraging, as it usually means a correction is due or the end of a trend.