Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Death Spiral Of The Canadian Dollar: 2002-2016 Review

From early 2002 our Canadaina dollar started on a wild bullish ride and as it peaked Canadian shoppers flocked across the border to buy stuff cheap.  It produced such a wild ride that I can count 7 waves up, which is not an impulse count but a corrective or diagonal count. Of course oil also had a lot to do with it. 

Recently our CAD added on another leg to its downside and we still are not sure where it will stop. One thing is for sure and that is the bullish consensus just hit a new low of 9% last week. Matter of fact we had at least 4 days last week all giving us 9% each day.  I have never seen that before, but does not surprise me as it fits well into the pattern we see above. 9% is also in the extreme range and anything lower is extremely rare. 

Eventually the CAD has to bottom, but if 70 cents does nothing, then 62 cents will as that would give us a 100% retracement.  Again 2011 was a big year (a secondary peak) as many commodities also saw major tops as stock mania kicked in.  We are now well into the 7th year from the 2008 crash bottom, which may turn into a Fibonacci number before it is done.

Our PM has not clue in what he will do as he is leaving it up to the banks or the our fed. Looks like they are doing nothing.  We just completed another small run of 5 so a correction or even a reversal is due. 

I may not be updating for a few days, and may start again on the weekend.