Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

DJIA Cycle Degree Review From 2000-2021



This is the regular cash DJIA index futures chart and i don't like doing them as they do not move during the night and do not move as smoothly as any individual contract does. In the bigger picture it does not make a big difference. The big question is where we are in this big mess of waves?

That can only be answered if it makes sense from where we are counting from and at what degree we stopped at. All this must be figured out first by drawing a well defined idealized chart and then making sure we stay in sequence.  This entire wave count is useless if we don't want to confirm where it started from and if wave three has been properly extended.  In this case I am showing you the probability that my wave "D" in Primary degree is completed, and then I always figure out what pattern I need and what degree of pattern I would need for the markets to deal us a big zigzag "E" wave.   

Of course, if you are a big degree wave counter, then all hell will break loose for you guys, but any hopes of 5 waves down in Primary degree will long be shattered. My bet is that  5 waves down in Primary degree will never happen, as even this early on, the markets are telling me otherwise.   

A net 50% correction of the bullish phase from 2009, is about 12,300, and that would put the "A" wave rather high on this DJIA chart. That's ok! As long as it alternates from the previous zigzag. I have no problem for a "D" wave to soar this high, but I sure would have a problem trying to force it into a double expanded flat, like all the SC and GSC wave counters are trying to do.  I think it is next to impossible for a flat to lead into another flat and both be expanded. Simply put, there is no such animal of a wave pattern, as markets will always alternate. Besides, with their wave counts, they are saying that the 2007-2009 crash was 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. 

I can keep shooting holes into any large degree wave count because they are all extending their 5th waves and not their third waves as it says what to do in the EWP Book. (Blue Book) 

Every 7-8 years we can expect a big correction or a bear market as that is the nature of the beast. 
I am looking very far down the Elliott Wave chain, so anything can still happen.  

I think the 20 year cycle will also come to an end by 2021 and this may also match a 100 year low.
By 2021 it would also be 89 years from the 1932 low, 34 years from the 1987 low, and 13 years from a 2008 low. 

All my wave counting is all about tracking one Cycle degree impulse wave structure, and I get the required wave counts from an idealized pattern. 



 I have created a new idealized Cycle degree 5 waves up, but most of it is blank. I have created hundreds of these idealized charts, but most of them are in SC or GSC degree.



Every wave counter today should be able to draw this out by hand and label it from memory! I have labeled two spots on this Cycle degree impulse and if you look towards the top you will see a "D" wave in Primary degree. 
                                             
                                                                   -------------
Updated Jan, 28, 2016 



I thought I would add my bigger wave count, and I stress this is not a SC nor a GSC degree wave count.  For a fee of $100 I will gladly create a wave count in any degree you would like. :)
I don't think we can't ignore physical wave size, especially when it is part of the same impulse. In this case we would be looking at a 5 wave sequence in Cycle degree. 

My 1937-1942 wave pattern is in Primary degree  which is closer to the Primary degree triangle I am working now.  The GSC degree has  shifted massively to the wrong side by two degree levels. They call the 1937-1942 wave a Cycle degree and now they are telling us with the same physical size that we are in yet two degrees higher. (GSC) I find that using the EWP without regard to any limitations to physical size,  does not work.  In other words, when we ignore relative/sequential  physical size, we can create any mythical wave count we want,  as we are no longer playing by any rules or guidelines. 

Dow 1000 has been forecast for so many years and is worthless information if the wave counts are not constantly review. DOW 1000 would barely get us back to the tips of the 70s, but they also have the 1929-1932 as their previous 4th wave in SC degree.    I will go on record and say that the, "DOW will never hit 1000". At best we would be frozen in a big block of ice, in the next ice age, before that ever happens.