Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Monday, January 18, 2016

DJIA Intraday Crash Review:


I will keep reminding readers for sometime yet that since the beginning of 2016 I will make every effort to deprogram myself from drawing subjective trend lines, but will only draw two or three lines that are parallel to each other. Doing this helps to stop or reduce the amount of times we force an impulse were there is no impulse. 

An "ABC" crash will crash through a parallel trend line in a dramatic fashion and reduces the amounts of times we may think we have an impulse.  The 2007-2009 stock crash is one example where two trend lines were forced and ended up giving us a completely false reading. Oil is also a very obvious place where the trend lines were forced in its so called 5 waves up in Primary degree.  

Creating a Primary degree that lasts a bit more than a year when you have Primary degree moves lasting over 8 years, something does not make any sense with the wave count.  I can show examples where one minute a SC degree crash only lasted 3 years with 2 sets of 5 waves down in Primary degree and now from 2000 forward, 16 years on we still have not seen a single set of 5 waves up or down in Primary degree. 

Even now many large degree wave counters have the DJIA containing two expanded flats which I think is next to impossible  to form. Chances are extremely rare or as I said, next to  impossible for a flat to lead into another flat, besides if they did, it would be an extremely long term bullish signal once they get completed.  I will bet that the SC and GSC wave counting experts will never see their 5 waves down in Primary degree and that the only 5 waves in Primary degree that they will get will be up not down. Matching  solar cycle #25.  One thing is certain and that is with the idealized charts we can figure out exactly what we need for any simple correction for any degree and when they do not show then we know we are at a false position. 



The entire DJIA plunge has been choppy and that eliminates it as a pure impulse decline and where we may eventually end up. My ending diagonal has been broken to the downside, but a bigger triangle  has not been completely filled the way I would like to see them get filled.  Starting in January the pattern has started to slow and change with may waves unable to fit into an impulse. 

So in the bigger picture I have to count them as diagonal waves until something tells me otherwise. I have a lot of "ABC1,ABC2 type wave counts and we may be in a 4th of some kind.  My degree scale is right at my lowest in Miniscule levels, but I have customized three more degrees lower. 

If this wave pattern keeps bunching up, then that is all a good sign that this market will turn a roar north one more time.   The worst thing is that this does not get resolved and keeps declining in this fashion until all our hair falls out. It would then mimic the 1930-1932 decline. 

I'm sure we are not heading into a depression  like all the big wave counters want and need to see but I never rule out any recession.  As long as electronic money transfers exist, this can work the same as Bernake's idea of a helicopter. Except with the electronic helicopter they can spread the wealth with just a click of the mouse button and never even get off their chair.