Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

E-Mini SP500 Intraday Review



From our bottom on the 20th of January and its subsequent rally shows the basic impulse has fallen apart 2 or 3 days later.  The sad part about it is that diagonal bull markets are not much different, and when we may want to call and end to a rally, many times it just keeps right on going and going! 

Even if it soars to the moon in the next few months, the markets will eventually cross and make new bear market lows.  Some of the conventional experts are all reading calling it a bear market even though we are still a full 200 points away from a 20% decline.  It would be funny if this market did just that and as soon as they fully agree that it is in a bear market, then this market turns and soars once more. 

I don't read anything into the conventional description for a bear market as bear markets are just corrections in a bigger bull market, depending on where we count from. 

I still see this market as a potential diagonal decline, and hopefully we will find out by the end of this month and the beginning of the next month. 4th waves have a tendency to drag out time wise as they do a lot of backfilling, with fast small trend changes. 

The last thing this market has to do is hit my top trend line as diagonals do not play that nice with parallel lines.  Since my theme has all been diagonal, then technically the SP500 should cross to new lows with a 3 wave pattern, preferably as close to looking like a zigzag as it can. 

Every Tom,  Dick&Harry short trader, would be running protective stops so there will always be tons of buy orders above any present price.  

Overall, I am not a SC degree or GSC degree follower as I already spent a decade wasting my time doing that.  It took many years to work the markets continuously into lower degree levels and I have not run into a single case that would force me to go back.  

When I saw all the big wave counters miss another major bull market, I know I was on the right track in seeking out the lower degree levels. My lowest degree level that has been labeled is in Micro degree, and as you can see many waves are still left unlabeled. 

My biggest wave count may be a triangle in Cycle degree which would eventually take the SP500 back down to the 650-550 price level before another major bull market develops.