I couldn't create a new and improved Elliott Wave Count at this time as I am still beating the old drums I had last year. We saw a few dramatic moves in the last days of 2015 which is to be expected as they put on a bit of window dressing in investors' accounts. Take your pick as it could be a tax loss or profit taking session in the last few days.
Well, it's a new year and an election year, so anything can still happen. My best choice is still a potential 4th wave scenario as the declines have had far too many overlapping waves to be classified or graded as a clean impulse wave structure. Sure, there are small 5 wave runs, but not where it counts, if the big one is here yet. The pattern for the last two months point to the high probability of the SP500 exceeded and major high so far achieved. This would be at my wave 3 top at the first part of November 2015.
The SP500 has only seen a 70% bullish reading in the last 24 months, which is not nearly bullish enough for a major top or even bearish enough for a major bottom. I would say the SP500 is in limbo when it comes to some of these concensus readings. They offer no help at this time. Strangely enough, much like gold, which also has not seen extreme readings.
My three month, consensus report will end by the end of January, and I will not renew it at this time.
Short term the SP500 could drop to the lower trend lines before cranking up one more time in yet another last ditch effort at another new record high. Bobbing up and down like this is truly a desperate act as it is just like what a drowning bull would do as they keep coming up for more air!