Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Sunday, January 3, 2016

January, 3, 2016 US Dollar Dubble Top And Double Bottom Review!

Welcome to 2016 and hopefully we will see the US dollar trend in a new downward direction more than just a few months. Who says that the US dollar will cooperate. Some price conscious analysts talk about the double top that has been completed in the US dollar, at about the 100.500 price level on my chart. 

Any market, creating a double top can produce a fake complacency as we have seen double tops being exceeded many times before. In a classic triangle this is very normal where the double top gets exceeded. So I try to be very cautious in saying that the big top has already happened with the US dollar. 

Besides, we could get the same situation as a double bottom at about the 93 price level.  That could end up being a base for a 4th wave just as easily.  Back in early 2015 the US dollar created a bullish consensus with 91% bulls, which is an extreme reading and all very good. It would also be a tough call if we're going to get a more extreme reading in 2016. The higher the bullish numbers the more bulls are present, with very few or no bulls left to get on this US dollar bandwagon. Every time the US dollar heads down, they start to question it's bull market status, which is very normal. 

We are so close as the US dollar can still go up to finish a 5th wave or drop down in my "E" wave decline.  If the US dollar decides to keep crashing then this would be good for gold and oil, in which oil has seen some extremely impressive bearish numbers.  The most extreme set of numbers I have seen and calculated in the last 15+ years. 

Any US dollar crash would help to confirm all the oil extreme bearish numbers, as they would eventually swing the opposite way.  With the wave count that I do have, I would not want to see the US dollar break out to a new record high at this time.  This may take another entire month to play out as this correction or decline has been at it for a month already.  

Either way the 93 price level would be the next double bottom to be aware of but if the US dollar gets that far then we have a triple bottom.  This can all play out until the US dollar gets close to the 95.600 price level as this is where any impulse wave I have will get trashed.