This March contract month crashed to a new low this morning before running right back up again. Yes, it could be the setup for another leg down, in which my larger wave count needs a new face lift with the plastic surgeon.
If this turns into a triangle or worse an expanded pattern,
then the markets are in for a much bigger decline. The cash charts for stocks do not move with Forex but the individual contract months do, which keeps the flow more consistent. I will be surprised if stocks see another low today, but we would have to wait until next week to know more. There is a good chance that the last few days we have seen an ending diagonal which would definitely make my bullish case, at least in the short term.
It is so hard to see great looking impulse waves on this decline, so I am very hesitant to call that a historic bear market is well on its way. I see
other wave counters trying to force the last several months into a Minor degree wave 1-2. Well, this may work if we are heading down to an "A" wave, but it will not work if we are heading down 5 waves in Primary degree. Trying to confirm SC or a GSC degree wave count is already failing.
There are very specific requirements to confirm any wave count in any degree and they come right out of the blue EWP book. Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior: Written by A. J. Frost, 2005 Edition, (10th Edition) Publisher: New Classics Library [Hardcover]: A. J. Frost: 8601419013999: Books - Amazon