If it were one time that gold stocks are going to break to a new bear market low, then this would be on this trip. Any price below 101 on the HUI would work. If it does not reach new lows and roars from todays levels, then it still would be a bear market rally. It would just be part of a bigger bear market rally. Markets would have to display some decent impulse waves to point us in the right direction as impulse waves build or compound on top of each other.
The gap just above 110 was filled nicely, and the HUI has now traveled past this gap. Any rally we've had since last August has been a bearish rally as they have all been retraced. Now we just have to wait for this pattern to do the same. From my perspective a complete retracement of any bullish move, is just a bear market rally no matter how large these moves can go.