Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Shanghai Index Crash Review




From June 2015 the decline looks like an impulse, but looks are always deceiving when looking at the markets with the EWP. The August 2015 crash was a single "ABC" wave so I have to look at the decline with diagonal eyes.  Then a 3-4 month rally presented another choppy rally, which was confirmed with another spike to the downside.  We still have not had a rally physically big enough to call a wave 1-2 unless it happens soon.  

With US markets on a big rally today, then during our night the SHCOMP could rally in reaction to our rally like a giant feedback loop!  If The Shanghai index rallies beyond reason, in the next few months, then a "C" wave bull market could form as it soars to another "B" wave top. 

Then another 5 waves down can happen, or should I say can fit before it goes to zero.  The initial crash down to my "A" wave was about 2300 points, so if that leg was to be reproduced then the Shanghai would end up at 400! This is not reasonable, even in a worst case scenario as it would have to happen within  the next 3-4 months.  The first 2300 point decline only took 3 months, so a 4 month further decline would not be unreasonable.  This is all speculation if a zigzag is in progress.