Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Silver 1980-2016 Review: Fear Investors Don't Care About Silver!



I have moved my Cycle degree back to the 1980 peak, but this may be temporary.
Silver has been very subdued or very indifferent to what is going on with gold. From my perspective, this is not a good sign all. Silver is on a rally, but has not shown any type of a well defined impulse. 

The way silver has been acting, it would not surprise me at all if another leg down in silver was to happen this year. Silver has seen a 24 month low of 16% bulls present, which is low, but not an extreme low to justify a major bull market. The bullish phase that started way back in 1993 came after a 13 year bear market. Any bullish phase that retraces its entire rally is a bear market rally. This happened three major times from 1980-1993.  

Then when a bigger bullish phase started from the 1993 bottom it produced such a choppy ride the wave counters tried to force it into some impulse wave count, which obviously has now failed.

The scary part long term is,  if the "A" 1993 bottom for silver is a true position, then silver in the long term, could fall and match this"A" wave bottom.  Judging if something is bullish or bearish by what price level it is at will, never work, as that is what the majority always do.

It is the type of pattern that was created in any bullish phase that is the key. Since silver peaked in 2011 it has created what looks like an impulse which I have divided into an "AB" wave at this time for a potential "D" wave bottom.  Any "E" wave rally will end up being very obvious as it should get closer to a double top. 

There is not much to add to this sad silver tale, but hopefully the US dollar will make a big trendy move down and silver should get a lift.