Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Sunday, January 31, 2016

SP500 1984-2016 Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Count Review, With Solar Cycle #24 Commentary

I started my wave analysis like everyone else. Why should I doubt anything created in GSC degree, after all we are in monster declines, followed by monster rallies.  I spent well over a decade, until I realized that I always had more waves left than I needed, so I dropped everything down by one degree and even started another blog to emphasize the point.    Once the wave count fiasco became clear after the 2009 bottom I realized that I had to drop down another full degree level, but I dropped down two degree levels instead, to Primary degree.  

Primary degree wave counting from the 2000 peak also did not feel right, so I moved back up to Cycle degree where it stands at this time.  After trying many different peaks  and a diagonal 5th wave, I am now working it as a Cycle degree triangle.  Our big and tall run can fit very well into a "D" wave, which may not be completed just yet, even though we've had some pretty good crashing and banging around. 

As a sick joke we could still be in a smaller version of the Cycle degree triangle, but due to the many tops finding the right peak is an on going endeavor. Eventually, it will become more clear  and then many will brag how they saw the crash coming.  

Are the wild swings we have had since the 2000 peak normal? Of course they are, it is just that we think that markets should behave like we are back in the 50's or even the 80s. 

I have adjusted a few wave positions prior to the 1987 crash, as two patterns back to back, and so close together, is not realistic.  I always look for some type of alternation. The true 5th wave extension has kicked in until the 1998 correction gave us another major warning that shit was going to hit the fan.  We don't need any Megahone lines, but the bottom has a distinct angle to it that will defy all SC and GSC degree wave counts again.

My Cycle degree wave 3 at the 2000 peak starts with the 1929 peak as I am working one big mother 5 wave sequence in Cycle degree.  No other larger degree can bud in or push its way ahead of any Cycle degree wave count that is not finished.  The neat thing is that any Cycle degree can and even "must" push its way in front of any SC or GSC degree wave count, otherwise we have gone out of sequence and the wave counts no longer make sense. 

The longer term outlook for 2021 may find the markets in a big funk, that many wave counters will swear it is the big one, and that it will get much worse. Sure, it is important to always have an alternate, but the SC degree wave counters will be expecting much more and a much deeper low than you can possible imagine.  "Fear is the Enemy of Reason" and I am sure talk of a depression will be rampant at that time.  Anybody that falls into this SP500 200, or SP500 100 point target is getting sucked into using a wave count that has never been confirmed by anyone. 

Any well drawn idealized wave count will tell you exactly what the market needs if we are in any known location.  This I have mentioned many times already with ample idealized drawings posted on my blog.  

Once this gets closer to being real, then this bear market will be coming to an end and a true impulse wave sequence should start which I have named the Roaring 2020's.  Even when that happens the doom and gloom will be rampant as they may not even feel the start of another wave 1-2. 

The start of all this should not happen until the 20 year cycle comes to and end, which should coincide with the end of solar cycle #24. 

This is the progress of solar cycle #24, and it is pointing to a 2020-2021 bottom. Solar cycle #24 also is one of the smallest in the last 100 years or so, but it has a higher secondary peak which is the opposite of many other peaks.   The first peak in 2011 killed the gold market,  as stock mania kicked into high gear.   

Many of the solar waves are Elliott Wave looking as well, and I have counted many "ABC" patterns.  Solar cycle bottoms are SC and GSC degree wave count terminators like 2009 was, so I am sure the same thing will happen again. One thing is certain you don't want to have a big bearish wave count as you will lose every time! 

It would be funny if the solar cycle were to rally and hit the top moving average line in the next few months, as that would act just like a 4th wave rally!  We are also facing what looks like a quadruple bottom, but we already know that this bottom will have a downside breakout!