Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Thursday, January 28, 2016

SP500 2000-2016 Cycle Degree Review

Since I made a DJIA big picture wave count review then it would also be a good idea to review the SP500. At this time there is no way of knowing with any certainty that the big top has already completed due to so many overlapping wave structures we got after the max top,  which seemed to be in May of 2015,  about 7-8 months ago.

A diagonal decline could be in progress and I may have to up my degree level to Minor degree.  There also would be no pie in the sky recovery until a full diagonal 5 waves in Minor degree can be counted out.  Again, I have to keep my options open as we can get into a bear trap at any time. 

A net 50% decline will put us close to the 1450 price level, and that would produce a zigzag that would ride high in the big picture.  I got no problem with that as no two zigzags are ever exactly the same. 

This is all pure speculation based on one wave count, but ultimately I think the markets are heading to the 2009 low or a bit lower as that would match a 1996 low, two solar cycle bottoms ago. By 2021 we should be into another major solar cycle low and it is the upswing that produces the massive bull markets we have seen in the past. 

To come close to any SC or GSC degree forecast the SP500 would have to crash well below 200,  then it still would not be back to the 1970s price level. 

Even if the markets crash this low in the long run, then I am sure the big wave counters will miss the resulting bull market as well.