Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, January 30, 2016

SPY00, SP500 Index Review With VIX And HDGE Commentary

The is the large cash contract, of the SP500, and it is starting to push the limits of how high it can go to be still part of a 4th wave rally.  This also has the makings of a diagonal wave (ABC1) and the next  pattern down it creates will give us more of a clue. On Friday a long leg was added which makes a great spike on the daily charts so at a minimum a correction is due. 

Any net 50-60% drop will work if we get an "ABC" down. If we do get a good correction on the way down, then watch out, as another leg up will surprise us all. Of course the VIX and HDGE will  implode.  The VIX has one small open gap above present prices, but still many open gaps below present prices.  This tells me there is still a big magnetic pull downward with the VIX,  in the longer term.  

I had another look at HDGE as well and it it has completed a very strong spike to the upside. The HDGE can make one more bounce to the upside, but that would give it a wave count of 7, which is a corrective wave count.  

Even during the mid January decline which looks like an ending diagonal, can also add to the case that a bigger "ABC" crash has ended on the December the 20th.  

Another short explanation would be that my "D" wave has not been completed yet, and there is the real possibility that a diagonal bull market is back in progress.