Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

US Dollar Cycle Degree Review:2008-2016

Going back to the 2008 bottom and then up to the 2009 top, this top matched the stock market bottom  as gold was still in a correction. If the 2008 bottom was a Cycle degree bottom, then I have to apply a 4th wave scenario bear market rally. Those wave analysts who are bent on forecasting another depression, or worse than the dirty 30s depression need the US dollar to keep rallying for many more years to come.  All they have right now is some commodities deflating, which is nothing new and has happened many times before. 

In the age of electronic money distribution, we don't need a helicopter anymore as by a simple click of the mouse they can send trillions out very quickly halting any depression that may or may not happen.  

I am sure any group of people out of a job will take any money sent to them and not say, "please take it back I want to live in a depression". 

Besides, if the US dollar imploded, then this would be good for commodities nullifying any potential depression.  In the 1930s they all bottomed together as the US dollar roared, nobody had a safety net. 

By 2011 the US dollar started to run and this coincided with a stock mania which is still going on but it's starting to crack. With lots of moves up and down stock mania will not be as obvious. The biggest thing is that stocks are way up since 2011 and gold is way down from the same time period.  In 2014 the US dollar ran in an explosive rally and by 2015 it started to travel sideways with a rather large pattern. 

This pattern sure is looking like a triangle with the high possibility of the US dollar breaking to new record highs. It is still a toss up and hopefully by the end of the week we should know more. 

The last 5th wave could be a diagonal so that can keep us fooled in which way the US dollar is still going to travel. 

Once this US dollar moves up is completed, we should see a rather lengthy trend heading down, but this may turn into another "ABC" crash as well.  We are so close to making or breaking a wave count, so all we can do is see what happens. Hopefully it will not take until the end of January to play out.