Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, January 30, 2016

WTI Crude Oil, December 2016 Contract 1990-2016 Elliott Wave Count Review



I was looking ahead for the next busiest month and the winner was the December 2016 contract month. I will be switching to this month as there is enough volume to produce Intraday charts. 
The best wave count I can come up with at this time is still the triangle in a Primary degree "B" wave, and there is a strong probability that we could be heading to an "E" wave top.

Most wave counters are ignoring the fact that the WTI crude oil crash is a potential "ABC" decline which is very bullish in the long term. Of course, many will argue this point as SC and GSC degree wave counters may need to see $10 oil before they ever see $100 oil again.  Are they going to miss the WTI bull market that may already be in progress, I think they will because if they saw a big "ABC" crash then they should be extremely bullish and posting this bullish pattern. 

At every major glut in previous history the crude oil market has turned and soared the other way.  If is funny, but the only thing they call a glut is oil even though we have had gluts in gold, silver and many other commodities. 

I say it is impossible to determine by price, if there  is a SC degree or a GSC degree crash in oil.  
From the 2008 peak I am showing you a Minor degree "ABC" crash which puts my wave counts just about three degrees lower. 

At our last major low we saw some of the most insane or extreme gold/ratios I have ever personally calculated out, with a max of about 40:1. 

Right now if I compare Dec gold and Dec oil we are looking at a bit above 33:1, still an extreme reading from my perspective.  Once I saw how busy the December crude oil contract was,  I will start to use the December gold contract for the gold/oil ratio.

Unless donations come in I will not renew any bullish consensus reports at this time,  even though it is one of the best reports around and I understand how to read it from a contrarian perspective.