Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

WTI Crude Oil Intraday Review: Volitile Enough For You?

It all looks like crude oil is soaring, but the impulse wave has already been broken, sort of. 

Besides WTI keeping on the same path as a potential diagonal 5th wave, it could also be seeing a small expanded top which makes it a potential flat that is in progress.  From the early 25th top we had what looks like a good zigzag which now has already been completely retraced today, taking only a few days to achieve this.  This is good as I like to see all "ABC" moves up or down eventually get completely retraced.

Now we have the potential for the same thing but inversed. If this is true we should get a match to the early 26th bottom.  I may have to bump up my degree levels by one as I am down at the bottom of the barrel right now. Pun intended! If I were to label any more waves I would have to use my custom three lower degree structures.
Oil futures rally on talk of Russia, OPEC output cut: reports - MarketWatch
Violent swings in both directions usually means a big trend change is already in progress and bullish news will be emphasized as bearish news comes out when the oil market crashes again. If the oil market turns and survives the next onslaught of bearish news, then we are in a bullish phase that cannot be stopped, until the wave patterns start to tell us differently.

We are now about 7 days from a major bottom and counting, and it would be nice to see if the 20th low is also the low for all of 2016.

The gold/oil ratio is a bit below 34:1 which is still extremely cheap when compared to gold.  Oil and our CAD have seen some extremes that the majority may view as being very bad and the forecasts keep coming that it is going to get worse.  From an EWP perspective, these are all contrarian indicators and they are critical in helping to assess if a major bottom is near.

The bullish consensus report is another great contrarian indicator but I will no longer comment on that until I can renew my subscription.