Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Another Elliott Wave Look At The Copper Big Picture: 1978-2016



Copper is another one of those wild commodity market that only has one move that I would consider an impulse move. Chances are it was an ending type impulse move as the 2011 peak also ended with a 5 wave count.  

Could the 2011 peak be a Cycle degree peak? At this time I'm going with it until such a time that my wave count gets completely trashed.  We have come to a recent extreme low, but with only a 16% bullish consensus reading. 16% is not near low enough to warrant a major bull market even though  any "B" wave rally can push to new record highs. 

This remains to be seen as it will be critical to monitor the intraday charts for a choppy and overlapping bullish phase.   We could just get a big 4th wave rally and copper would return to its bearish phase one more time. 

My single bottom line is only to show that the bullish trend started a long time before 1980, as copper created higher highs since then.  If we think forward to a possible major low in the future would that tell us that the economy would be better or will it get worse than today?

Price crashes created the bearish fundamentals not fundamentals, creating price crashes! The fundamental experts had no clue that a chopper crash was coming in 2008. They were hoarding copper everywhere to control supply due to a copper shortage that they thought they were in. 
My rant is this, "fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes". Bull markets come alive from absolute pessimism, and bear markets strike from extreme optimism. 

Short term I may be bullish with copper, but we would have to watch it closely to make sure that a good impulse pattern remains.   I cannot maintain any more wave counts as I'm stretched thin already,  and my friends have more of an interest in gold and oil.  

There may be no updates on Monday but I may do some later in the evening. At a minimum I always like to do about 2 or more posts per day, but take breaks on many Sundays or even Mondays. I can schedule them ahead of time as well.