Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Thursday, February 4, 2016

April WTI Crude Oil Elliott Wave Count Review

I was wrong in using the December gold and oil contracts as volumes can dramatically rise and fall in any month. I try and work the next busiest month ahead as activity drops off dramatically when the contract expires.   Any gold, oil ratio I calculate I will stay as close to the same months that I can. 

The oil pattern in the near month is also different which I now have worked as a potential expanded pattern.  If the impulse false apart anymore than I will have to look for a corrective wave structure. 

We know from what the book says about expanding pattern and if they are true, we should see a dramatic oil push to the upside. This means our present decline has to find a bottom sooner than later, and then push much higher. 

The April gold/oil ratio is still at a healthy 34.49:1 which is extremely cheap when using gold as money.  If the oil rally is just another fake, then it too will plunge to a new bear market low. 

I have been doing some research as to the biggest wave count that oil can have and what the charts may look like once oil is gone. So far I can track the origins of the first well in the USA to August, 27, 1859.  Is this where wave zero in oil started? The next year they had oil/wells in Poland and within 10 years oil wells were everywhere. 

I will post a separate oil message talking about oil as an energy source that is eventually supposed to disappear or run out.