Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Critique Of DJIA Grand Supercycle Degree 2000 And Beyond!




This is only an example of one wave count you may see being painted by all those that think they have already passed into the brave new world of Grand Supercycle degree wave patterns.  I have labeled most of them with the degrees that others have. What I see is that the pattern from 2000 to 2009 is a (3-3-5) It must be that in order to get an expanded flat. This would be an expanded flat in Primary degree,  landing on another "A" wave in 2009, which is a Cycle degree bottom.

A Cycle degree "A" wave bottom to yet another expanded flat top until 2015?
I think it is next to impossible to produce two expanded flats in a row,  and that the second expanded flat would crash to another "A" wave but in SC degree.  Do you think a third flat in a row is "not" going to produce another stock market record high? 

From my perspective, it sure will as otherwise you would not have corrections.  This is not Elliott Wave rocket science folks, but just common sequential wave counting.  You will never get three expanded flats in a row even if they are different degree levels.  Besides expanded flats are very bullish once they hit bottom, as the 2009-2015 rally has clearly demonstrated.   

In small degree expanded flats, the 5th wave can just blast upward confusing even the best of the wave counters. 

They have been smoking the green stuff if they think they can keep selling this to the public for over 15 years now.  GSC degree wave counters are looking for their Primary degree 5 waves down as they have started down in Minor degree already. 

 First off, when 5 waves start with the main wave pattern, wave 1 starts very close to the top.  You will be lucky to see any Minor degree waves and 5 waves down in Intermediate degree would be very short or compressed.  The entire 5 wave decline should be just like a normal impulse as we would be resuming the real trend again. 

If they start out in Minor degree, then they would only be at,  a  wave 1 in Primary degree, when they reach the 2009 bottom. That didn't work the last time, so it sure will not work the second time. 

 Most of these big wave counts all come from the lack of double checking 100 years back or simply changing the 1929 peak. 

Once this GSC degree herd of wave counters think that they are at a SC degree "A" wave low, then, do you think they will finally get a zigzag anytime soon? Either way, at a minimum they would need to get another 5 waves up in Primary degree as a trailing "C" wave bull market.  As I mentioned, SC degree "B" wave high must end up higher than our present 2015 peak. 

A Cycle degree "A" wave crash in 2009 did not produce a depression,  so chances are slim an "A" wave in SC will not produce one as well.  

It is impossible to cheat or sidestep a rally after an "ABC" crash has happened as a 100% retracement is what you will get next.  

From my perspective, I follow a single impulse wave in Cycle degree as this is what is stuck between two SC degree points. Without a clear picture where Cycle degree starts and ends we have no SC, and definitely no GSC degree wave patterns.  Elliott wave is not what they look like in the real world as the real world wave patterns will always fool us, but what they should be in a well drawn out impulse wave with wave 3 as being the longest. Not basing everything on the 5th wave being the longest. 

Solar cycle #25 will be the Cycle, SC or GSC degree terminator as the solar cycles eat and spit out bad wave counts like meat in a meat grinder!