Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Friday, February 5, 2016

Crude Oil And The Millennium Degree Base (Updated)

I hope this link works as I edited the spelling, but it points towards the EWI big picture Elliott Wave count of WTI crude oil. They do not fill out all the wave tops as they want to sell subscriptions, but their wave count starting in 1859 has a triangle, which they labelled with capital letters (ABCDE).

Capital letters can only be one of three degree levels, and it is not rocket science as we can eliminate Minscule and Minor degree. This only leaves one option and that is, the triangle they show is a Millennium degree correction with 5 Submillennium degree subdivisions.  

Now  I am a real stickler for drawing out the idealized wave count many times to understand what is required to fill out the rest of the Millennium degree 5th wave.  This is not a mistake or a misprint, and it will only make sense if you download their chart and print it out, as a reference.  

A Millennium degree 5th wave needs 5 waves up in the Submillennium degree to fill out  a completed run.  Now what do think we would need for the wave degree to fill out wave 1,3 and 5? 

We would need three sets of 5 waves in GSC degree. Yes, this is not a misprint or a sick joke, but the big picture they are painting in the long run is an  "EXTREMLEY" bullish picture for oil.  

I have duplicated their wave count  up to the 2008 peak, and it would have to be a GSC degree peak  at a minimum. They have a Cycle degree "AB" started, but they need a SC degree to correct a GSC degree  wave 1. This shows that there is a potential for a flat as a wave 2 correction that may hit an expanded top before a crash to $10 can happen. 
This is what the idealized chart would look like if we were to think 5 waves up in GSC degree.   

From my perspective, I think the 1859 time period is the start of wave zero, but from a SC degree top.
This means that there is one set of 5 waves in SC degree in the life of oil on this planet, after all aren't  we supposed to run out of oil?  The wave count must come to an end as well if oil is no longer being pumped.  My gold/oil ratio would also cease to work! 
There are many alternate ways to run a car or a bus as it only takes people with vision to make it happen. Who needs oil when we can drive in an electric car or zoom around the planet in a Hyperloop!  

Updated February, 7, 2016

Once I looked at my first chart above, I noticed a huge error in my sequence, but I will leave it up just the same. Overall, the EWI count would still be working from a Millennium wave 4 base. 

The question we always have to ask is, what idealized wave count, is it that we need, to complete the entire 5th wave in Millennium degree? This is the one question I always ask at every turning the markets will make, and it is the same question I ask when drawing up an idealized impulse wave structure.  It is only when the idealized structure is drawn out and understood, is when we have a clue in what to look for. 

My answer to that is that we would need five waves up in Submillennium degree. Of course 5 waves up in Submillennium degree must all contain subdivisions.  As long as wave 1 is always the shortest and wave three and 5 can be the same lengths. If extensions happen then they are usually the last degree of the sequence. 

The chart above is another updated chart showing Submillennium degree wave one completed at the 2008 peak. This also makes what used to be a Cycle degree run, now has to turn into a GSC degree 5 waves up. This makes 1999 a GSC degree bottom and then the run up would be 5 waves in SC degree.  Sound crazy? Of course it does, but this is what you would have to count out if the Millennium base was true. 

Our present crash would be a GSC degree crash and should not contain a triangle in anyway, except maybe inside the "B" wave.  Also, our 5 waves down since mid 2014 would be five ways down in  SC degree, which is also impossible.

As you can guess, I do not believe in the 4th wave base as how Elliott waves unfold, especially in oil which historically would have a limited life span.  Again, I believe oil is on one big 5 waves in SC degree, and it still has 89, or 144 years to play out. Once this SC degree 5th wave is completed, then oil would crash and eventually have to flat line in price.