Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Friday, February 26, 2016

Crude Oil Elliott Wave Review

What a wild bunch of gyrations in both directions and it is very difficult to see a potential trend in place. Sure, I can look for a super bearish wave count still to come, but I will bet the majority of wave counters are still doing that. They are still oblivious to a potential bull market because they are working a minimum of a Supercycle degree, which pretty well has the $10 price target in mind. 

Of course, there are always many alternate wave counts  and most of them are the opposite of what the herd of analysts are saying. They will start to change their minds once oil breaks another high in the next few weeks or less. 

Everytime an  oil decline happens, I look for a potential "ABC" like bottom, which means that the market in question will rise and rally, breaking the previous high where the "A" wave started from.

In order for this to be in an impulse, we need oil to break higher unless I had a triangle 4th wave, in which we could be heading down to a wave 2 bottom. This would take oil down to the $30.50  price level before it cranked up again in a big way. 

I do not follow oil inventories, except for temporary reading as inventories are just like a full gas tank without a gauge. If you just filled your car up with gas and you tell everybody in the world your gas is full, then chances are somebody siphoned your gas during the night  and next thing you panic because your gas is low.  Billions of cars are always sucking on the oil inventories and it takes very little disruption or production decline and a bullish panic would ensue.

                   Here is a good way to see how the rig count has crashed. 

I saw charts one time that take satellite readings of the top lids of oil storage bins, the higher the lids ride the more inventory they have in stock. 

If the entire pattern you see is actually a big triangle, then yes, crude oil will fall to a new record bear market low.  I focus on the extreme readings that the gold/oil ratio and bullish sentiment reports give us, to look for the bullish wave pattern yet to come.