Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Crude Oil Intraday Review: Bullish Correction Or The Return Of The Bear Market?

This is the March contract which clearly shows that WTI oil has pushed to a new bear market record low, but it reached this bottom with a three wave decline. Diagonals end this way so now we have to see if WTI pushes higher again.  Another sharp decline would help to keep the bullish scenario alive.

Many wave counters may still be calling for $10 oil as that is what a SC or GSC degree bottom may call for.  Elliott Waves have one mission and that is to fool as many wave counters on this planet as possible, and that includes yours truly as well. 

If this were an impulse decline WTI would have to drop like a rock and even head to zero to complete two more sets of 5 wave declines.  Of course that will never happen so another wave count must be in progress.  Our gold/oil ratio sits a bit above 41:1 which is still extreme,  so not much has changed there.  It is very difficult to push oil much lower with readings like that, but stranger things have known to happen.  

For the bullish scenario to confirm itself, it has to go higher with good looking "ABC" type corrections. This is when the "C" wave or an "E" wave points down.

When they start pointing up, then watch out as something dramatic will happen, and it will be the opposite of what the bullish herd will be expecting. 

I was picking on the big degree wave count from EWI and I don't think it has a leg to stand on, as they are building from a huge 4th wave base in Millienium degree. My work is based on a wave two in SC degree with a limited life span once we run out of oil.  Of course, there is no threat of us running out of oil anytime soon, but at the next major peak I am sure they will be calling for $200-300 oil again as a new Peak Oil arrives.  Many will say that this time, "it's different" but in reality it is always different, every major low and every major high, will be different with the fundamentals, what will never change are the human emotions, of fear, greed and hope. In commodities, it is fear that dominates the most as hope and greed take much longer to manifest itself.