Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Friday, February 5, 2016

Crude Oil Intraday Review:




Since this impulse looking wave is much bigger physically than the others in the sequence that started On January the 20th, I have to explore a potential bearish rally wave count.  I don't create mindless wave counts for trade setups as you don't need Elliott Wave knowledge to do that, and I won't put a bunch of alternate wave counts on the same chart. 

I can promise you, there are always alternate wave counts, and I run one to see if it can get confirmed or killed.  

It all depends on where we count from, and how long we can get fooled into thinking a true impulse is in progress.  In short, there are "always" three potential corrective patterns, specific to the degree. 

In this case oil would have to fly like an Eagle to confirm a potential "C" wave bull market. The pattern above is a flat with and expanded flat for the "B" wave part. Many times the picture is not clear enough until the very end of a move, and then you have to scramble to find a better fit. 

This move can also fit into a bigger zigzag, so all options are still on the table.  Recent news stories paint an absolute bearish crude oil picture with, "east coast bloated inventories". There is no hope for oil to ever rise and lower prices are still being forecast. These forecasts change with the wind and the fundamental news will drive you nuts as investors react to it. 

When the market is in consensus and the majority only seeing the bearish side, then eventually the markets will go the opposite way.  This has happened after every glut crude oil was ever in. 

I have gone over the EWI crude oil wave count starting back in 1859 and it makes no sense at all, as they are bouncing from a 4th wave triangle bottom in Millennium degree.  They are posting to their subscribers an extremely large degree and long term crude oil bullish wave count, which I can't post as it would be a copyright issue.