Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Crude Oil Intraday Wild Ride Review



The little rally we are presently in is a counter rally and it should get retraced soon, producing another lower low. I recently looked at the oil intraday wave count from EWI and to my surprise our January low wave degree matched exactly. I showed Subminuette degree bottom and so did they. 

EWI has made it clear that their wave count will take oil lower and they may be right.  What they don't talk about is that the sentiment readings have been extremely low and no mention of anything related to the insane gold/oil ratio being so low. Their wave counts would still be in sympathy with the crowd and they see no bull market coming at this time.  Would you mention a potential bull market if your wave counts are telling you that one has a high probability of happening?

After all, a big bad ass "ABC" crash is being played out in front of our eyes and nobody sees the next bullish phase coming.  Some are saying $80 is next on the list, but that would be a bit more than a double. 

They may be right as this pattern could be in a triangle and another leg down would then happen. Now if all the news were to focus on the production losses or the very high demand for electricity by oil producers, and refineries, the price of oil would skyrocket. Just because some news does not see the front pages, does not mean it is any less important, but chances are it is far more important. 

This is the April contract as the March contract volume is dying off fast. Our new low date would be February the 11th at about $28.74.  Will that be the crude oil, low for 2016? It would be nice, but we have to let the wave patterns help to confirm it.  I show a potential wave 1 peak, but some wild gyrations may still have to play out, until I can see a clear enough completing "ABC" pattern. If a strong spike to the downside develops first, then I would turn bullish  quickly. 

In the longer term I think crude oil will still break $115 and then possibly create a double top Peak Oil high of $147.  No mythical Super Duper Grandiose degree run to $200-$300 will happen.