Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Friday, February 19, 2016

Crude Oil Monthly Chart Elliott Wave Count, 1980-2016 Cycle Degree Review



This will give you some reading for the weekend. The last wave count I am going to give is the regurgitated wave count from all those SC or GSC degree wave counters. Oh Yeah, we can't forget the Millennium Degree super duper wave count that Elliott Wave International (EWI)  has been promoting for many years. 

Moving my Cycle degree wave three back to the 1980 peak we started what looks like a bear market and in any sense of the word it was. What nobody looked at is that the 1999 low was higher than the 1986 bottom, which puts the start of the oil bull market back in 1986. 

The big question is what type of a bear market is this as EWI has labeled this with a "WXY" wave.
I've never used any "WXY" wave counting as I think it is very unesscary and just complicates matters, instead of making it easier. Besides "W" waves make no clear distinction if they are zigzags or flats.  The perfect wave for lazy wave counting! 

When we start back in 1986 and look forward nothing fits into an impulse with ease as they would all be forced impulse wave counts.  I am a real stickler to at least try and match the physical size most of the time, as I refuse to make two Primary degree patterns that are 1/4 the size of another Primary degree move the same. 

From the 1999 bottom I count 5-3-5 waves which would be  a stretched zigzag. Zigzags stretch and even compress at times so this can fit well. 

We can argue until pigs start to fly if it should be a Cycle degree top or not, but "C" wave bull markets can fool the best of us at anytime of the day. 

Since the 2014 top crude oil got serious with its decline and proceeded to put up a bearish display. (17:1 gold/oil ratio in 2014) which I know commodities have the ability to do when it is their time to do so.  

From my Cycle degree perspective, I use one single 5 wave impulse in the SC degree in which oil could run out or no longer be in favor of being used. This would also kill the crude oil wave count as when the oil era ends, it should flat line and never rise again.