Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Crude Oil Weekly Chart Review 2008-2016 With Supercycle Degree Commentary

I think it is always a good idea to review the biggest wave count and this time I am looking at a weekly chart. This is also a reminder that we cannot forget where the origin of this bear market started from. It never started in 2014 as that was only the secondary top, but this big oil crash started back with the 2008 peak. The bear attack came after all the pristine bullish fundamentals showed the oil was going to $200 and even $300 as Peak Oil had the world running out of oil. What a load of crap they told us at that time and this time it's no different except they have been telling us a load of bear crap instead.  

How many times do you need to hear this regurgited "scant" before it is old news? 
If you have heard it twice before it's old news folks as we are living in an electronic age and not where we still need a town crier to get the message across.  The internet works like a bullhorn as within 24 hours the world has all the news, anybody else would still be asleep at the switch. 

The 2008 peak I call a "C" wave peak as part of an even bigger Primary degree "B" wave triangle. 

My trend lines are in parallel  with each other and there is no chance that another super impulse wave heading down is going to materialize. Sure it can go lower if oil still needs to do that, but it's not going to zero.  I bet all the SC and GSC degree bears are still waiting for the $10 oil price to happen, but they are working a trend in sympathy with the bearish herd.  This didn't work in late 2008 with stocks and it sure will not work with crude oil.  When our wave counts are oblivious to a potential bull market then we are being blind sided by our own wave counts. 

Any wave counters that sees a potential "ABC" crash and does not explore the bullish case is going to be left in the dust once again. 

When we look back at the 2008 bottom and the last world oil glut, we can see many spikes to the downside before it switched trends and shot up again. By the time crude oil reached $115, the world glut had disappeared and the $200 price target was regurgited one more time. In fact the experts were saying, "oil will not fall below $100 again".  Just goes to show how little experts pay attention to the patterns. 

Crude oil recently has created two spikes to the downside which I see as being very bullish and we can track back and see the markets bounce from nearly every spike to the downside.  These spikes are next to impossible to see with candlesticks  as the wicks are as thin as hairs. 

To help confirm that we are in a big "ABC" crash in Intermediate degree, we need oil to eventually break three major price levels in the next few years. This would be in this order, $107, $115 and $147!  Yes, it is a trick statement! :)  

During the 2008 top and then the subsequent crash, I was working crude oil as SC degree, but I changed that over a year ago. I don't think oil has that big of a lifespan to justify any wave count above SC degree and it could also have a life span of only one 5 wave impulse in Cycle degree. 

The problem with the above oil wave count is the forced Primary degree wave three,  as it is far too small to match the huge waves in the 1990's bear market. Besides the 1999 bottom was a higher bottom than 1986 was, so the oil bull market ran much longer that what the world has been telling us.  

Even the whale oil era ended when they ran out of whales to kill. Crude oil could go the way of the dinosaurs or fall out of favor.  Mind you, it still may take 50 years or so. 
What has to remain is a cheap source of energy in use for home and mobile applications. 

Here is an example of the wave count I would have to have if I stayed in sequence to the 2008 Supercycle degree top.  (SC Degree)  Does the pattern change any? Not really, but what would change is the pattern that we have to get next, and how long and high crude oil will have to go. 

Right now we have a single zigzag looking pattern and we would need four more sets if we were at the start of a triangle in Cycle degree.  I already have many idealized Cycle degree triangles posted on this blog.  

How many waves of what degree would we need to complete one 5th wave in SC degree? This is not Elliott Wave rocket science, but a question that must be asked at every turn, not just when we feel like it.  My answer is,  that we would need 5 waves up in Cycle degree, to finish this wave count, if it were a true wave count. 

One reason that I am so critical of the high degree oil wave count is because we have been brainwashed by it for decades already, and nobody has done any meaningful review looking for alternates.  Many like to keep their wave counts a top secret so they can sell more subscriptions, but that will not work for those that love to debug a wave count and make it better or usable by the contrarians.