Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Monday, February 22, 2016

E-Mini SP500 Intraday Rally Review: Is A Correction Due?

It has been a beautiful run up to this point as 5 waves seemed to be competing with even a 5th wave extension thrown in for good luck.  After any 5 waves are completed something else happens.  What will happen next all depends on where we are counting from.  I like to think we have seen a major low on the 11th of February and we are heading up in a potential clean 5 waves or the ugly diagonal still comes out of the woodwork.

I calculate everything from a net basis and the 1860 price level will give us about a 61% retracement

What I will be looking for is a good looking corrective wave and when that seems to be completing I will turn bullish once again as another leg up would have to happen.  That's all in a perfect world of an impulse, but we know that Elliott Waves are not perfect as they are created to fool all or as many expert wave counters as they can. 

Those that think we are on the big one already and part of a wave three in Minor degree already, will have to adjust their wave counts once again.  It is impossible to force a diagonal wave count into an impulse wave count as they are two different sets of waves. I would be singing a different tune as well if I saw better formed impulse waves in the last 6-8 months but I can't.

The markets have seen spikes to the downside which are bullish indicators or bear termination patterns. 

Gold has reacted with a decline to the stock bullish move which is what I would expect to keep happening as long as stocks seem on a bullish trend.  The return of any stock mania is a gold stock killer as well,  as the two are very strong competitors.