Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Gasoline RBOB Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Review



When we look at this big picture wave count my Cycle degree wave three peaked out in 1980, then gasoline crashed into 1986. That 1986 crash low has never been surpassed as the 1999 low was a higher low. Higher lows is the conventional description of a bull market.  With any Elliott Wave we want a little more than what the wording the general public uses. The public has no idea how far a big bear market rally can travel as they only care about one thing, and that is that it is going up. 

In their eyes, as long as the market is going up, it's a bull market. This is definitely not the case with Elliott Wave patterns.  With this wave count I am working a potential Primary degree triangle which should eventually lead up to a Primary degree "B" wave top.  Since gasoline did not go as low as crude oil did, we then must also have a bit different of a wave count. 

The only thing I can fit at this time is a potential "C" wave bull market, which would need constant monitoring to build a better wave count. To require 5 waves up in Minute degree blasting to a major double top, is a stretch for even my method. 

The run to the 2008 peak contained a zigzag that just does not fit very well, but all the overlapping waves make it a prime candidate to keep the big triangle alive.  

The 2011-2014 peak looks like it contains a "B" wave of some type so if this is true at a bare minimum RBOB should retrace that sideways pattern. It is a lot harder to build up gasoline inventories than it is with crude oil, so gasoline can see a lot more volatility.  

We have seen some extreme readings in anything related to the oils, so this is always the prime time to trap the super bears who ignore the extreme indicators. 

I use only parallel trend lines unless I want to show a triangle. With this pair, some spikes have been cut which is nothing in the big scope of things, as throw-over and throw-under patterns get eliminated.  Throw-over and throw-under patterns are subjective opinions, and a way of forcing a wave count into a position it should not be in. It also makes technical analysis very unstable if the trend lines are constantly being changed.