Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Gold Weekly Chart Cycle Degree Review



As much as I hate trend lines most of the time, I do use them but only in parallel fashion. 
The gold bull market ended in the first week of September 2011, but we are still faced with a big question mark. 

One set of trend lines is pointing to the $850-$800 price level with our recent rally now intersecting, and it will be important to watch to see if corrective patterns form. The problem with that is diagonal and corrective wave patterns are much the same, as gold and even silver have made corrective waves up to Fridays close.  

Nobody knows if the 2011 top is a Cycle degree or worse, like the SC and GSC degree wave counters want us to believe in, but Cycle degree is my best position at this time.  Any Cycle degree correction has been far too small to be called completed. All my bullish consensus reports did not suggest a bearish bottom big enough to justify a major bull market in gold.

If a Primary degree "A" wave just came to an end in 2015, then yes gold will soar again, especially if the correction seems to take longer than what may seem normal. "B" wave rallies could rocket to new record highs in an expanded fashion, but I would have to look for a different bear market decline wave count. 

This September 2016 would complete a 5 year decline in gold, which is a Fibonnacci number.  
The short end of this is that a correction will take gold to a newer high while, a bearish rally will not sustain this great looking run, but end up crashing to a new record bear market low.    

This weekly chart also shows the spike in more dramatic fashion, which I always use as a potential turning indicator. 

The commercials also showed their bearish thoughts as they piled on with over 32,000 short positions. As usual the speculators are chasing the trend and piled on their long positions with over 24,000 contracts.  

I may try the 2011 peak as a Primary degree top, but even then I would rather see a more dramatic end to a 4th wave bottom, which has not been the case. Now if the spike up was pointing down, that would be a very dramatic move. 

Comparing cash, gold and cash WTI oil,  we get a gold/oil ratio of just a bit over 42:1  An extreme reading for 2016. 


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As you may have noticed, I am running ads on the sidebar and below my postings, but this  is not racking up the numbers to maintain my site. I still have to optimize my site which is ongoing and  very time consuming. My priority is creating content as without content there is no blog. 

 I will still be asking for donations, but I will eventually reorganize that to be in a separate single page and reflect more in selling subscriptions, then asking for donations. 

With this blog getting close to 1/2 million pages read by the end of this month, I think there is enough interest to raise funds to help keep this blog alive. 

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