HDGE has pushed to a new high, ending in a secondary spike. If we count the waves from the November 2015 bottom we have a count of 7 waves at this time. A 7 count wave structure, is corrective in nature which usually means a complete retracement should happen in time. We would have to add two more waves about the same size to kill this bear rally idea.
Any diagonal run will create the same wave count, so either way we should at a minimum get a correction. I also have a minimum of 4 open gaps below present prices, which are also bearish indicators for HDGE. With many of the stock indices having many gaps above present prices, this makes it more likely than not, a rally should close all the gaps off.
The VIX has also pointed up along with HDGE and between the two make excellent indicators for when stocks make a potential reversal.
From August 2015 top to the November 2015 bottom was a three wave crash,
( more flat) this has several implications in any asset class. It could be a perfect expanded pattern, a diagonal ending, or part of a triangle. Either way all the wave counts I suggested do not support a big bull run in the HDGE at this time.