Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Mini DJIA Intraday Price Action Review. Is It Just A Correction?

Sometimes wave counting analysts will say that the wave count is "clear"  and that they have hit another strong top. The markets are resuming their trend downward into the bear pits of a depression. How many times or years have we heard that story before, yet all we have had are recessions. 

These recessions have been followed by stock mania cycles that no SC or GSC degree wave counter forecasted. They were all trying to find that wave 2 Primary degree top completely missing the bull market which started in 2009.  I let all the others work out their frustrations with their SC and GSC degree wave counts as I already spent a decade or so doing that exact same thing. 

Are we in another fake decline? (Correction) or has the big trend reasserted itself?  We will never know, but any correction is just too early to be completed at this time, and we have to see if this decline turns into a better looking impulse. 16,000 would be my rough target price range if we're to end up with just a correction. The DJIA would have to drop a little more to fill out a potential zigzag and drop further still if a leading 5 waves were in progress. 

So far we've had a pretty good looking impulse with an expanded wave 3 top in Micro degree or  a Subminuette degree 4th wave.  This has terminated at a potential wave 1 in Minute degree. 

Overall, if my 4th wave in Minor degree has completed on the 11th, I would need 5 waves up of some type to complete the 5th wave that I think we are in. 

Bullish consensus numbers do not suggest a super bear market just yet and they do not support a super bull market as well.  We can paint all the bearish scenarios you want, but if insiders are buying their own stocks back or a bearish mood has also hit a general low we are not going to get the big SC or GSC degree crash just yet. Having the same wave count like the public feels, will never work as the markets will always do the opposite of what the majority will think is going to happen.  

The herd is just too slow and cumbersome to be any use in forecasting anything, but the intensity of their mood is.  On the Intraday level public intensity is just much harder to figure out.